Obama tops new national polls

[Charon]

CNN

Three national polls of Democrats show Sen. Barack Obama is the front-runner for the nomination. But what's behind this latest momentum?
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New national polls show Sen. Barack Obama, right, trumping Sen. John McCain in November.

There's growing evidence that Obama is seen as more electable than Sen. Hillary Clinton.

If you average the "poll of polls" -- AP-IPSOS, USA Today/Gallup and CBS/New York Times -- Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent unsure.

Here's something Democrats agree on even more: In two different polls, around 70 percent of Democrats polled believe Obama will get their party's nomination.

When Democrats were asked about the general election, the New York Times-CBS News poll showed Obama had the best chance of beating Sen. John McCain -- 59 percent to Clinton's 28 percent.

And it's not just Democrats.

The USA Today-Gallup poll asked Republicans which Democrat would McCain have a better chance of beating.

The answer: Clinton 66 percent, Obama 18 percent.

Republicans are just itching to run against her. Her response? She's heard it all before.

"I hear all these folks talking about who is or isn't electable. Well, they said the same thing about me when I started running in New York. ... You know, nobody would vote for me, good grief. I was wasting my time and my money," Clinton recently said. "But I trust the voters, and frankly that's who matters."

All three national polls asked voters the electability question in a general election matchup.

They show Clinton in a dead heat with McCain -- both coming in with 46 percent.

Obama, meanwhile, leads McCain by seven points -- 49 to 42 percent.

So why does Obama do better? Here's his answer:

"It's a choice between going into the general election with Republicans and independents already united against us, or running with a campaign that has already united Americans of all parties around the agenda for change. Now that's the choice," Obama has said.

Independents are crucial swing voters. They give McCain a solid lead over Clinton, according to the New York Times-CBS News poll. But independents abandon McCain for Obama.

If Obama's the alternative, McCain's support among independents drops from 52 percent to 36 percent.

The difference in electability looks small, and neither Democrat looks like a sure winner or a sure loser.

But the belief that Obama is more electable is taking hold.

The last time I looked at the "poll of polls" Clinton had been ahead 44% to 43%. And I'm willing to bet that the majority of the undecideds are gonna swing towards Obama before the week is out.

[Comrade Tortoise]

Except that clinton does not trust the voters when she is willing to go behind our backs, court superdelegates, lobby pledged delegates, and try to get rulings on michigan and florida reversed...

[SirNitram]

Standard issue DLC nonsense. What's truly pathetic is that everyone thinks that's new; the DLC has done that for years.

[frigidmagi]

Let's say Clinton does do that. Let's say she blackmails/bribes or other wise convinces enough superdelegates to get her the nod with the addition of MI and Fl.

Does anyone here truly think after such an act that the majority of the population will trust her? Does anyone here think she would become the focus of alot more rage and hate? Those superdelegates would have the anchor of "I said fuck democracy and backed the Clinton coup" around their necks. Most of them have to run for elections. Can they win with that anchor around their necks? I say no, they can't. I say if Hillary does this it'll be as bad for the Democrats has Perot was for the Republicans. If she does it she might as well paint a target on her ass and pray the Republicians get to her first. They only hate for being an opponent, the democrats will hate her for being a traitor on top of that.

[General Havoc]

She cannot win the general election. There is no earthly combination of events that I can foresee short of McCain having a heart attack or losing his mind and insulting large groups of people. McCain will take her "experience" argument and shove it down her throat by presenting his record as a "Maverick" Senator (true or not), and a war hero. He will beat her soundly about the head and shoulders when she tries to go after him on Iraq, claiming that while he has an opinion and holds to it, she flip flops constantly on the issue and is merely scoring cheap political points with soldiers' lives (and he will be believed). EVERYTHING Hillary does is tainted with sleaze, rightly or not, because she exudes the aura of wanting to win at any price.

Independants will BOLT for the McCain campaign en-mass, democratic turnout will fall through the floor as former Obama-ites will feel cheated, robbed, and demoralized, and they will vote for Nader, or they will vote for write-ins, or they will stay home and not vote. Some will obviously hold their noses and vote for Clinton, but not enough, and moreover some will actually cross the isle and vote for McCain.

I may be among them.

The superdelegates and party leaders, as I have said, do in fact have a choice. They can choose to win the general election, or to lose it.

Their call.