West Virginia going blue?

[General Havoc]

The American Research Group, a polling organization, claimed today that Barack Obama is currently leading John McCain in West Virginia by the staggering sum of eight points. ARG is not the most reputable pollster, and that figure seems flatly absurd to me on the face of things, but even assuming it is way inaccurate, it leads me to ask a specific question:

The polling news from the past few weeks has been a series of stunners for me, particularly in the South. First Obama took a clear and commanding lead in Virginia, and managed to hold it. Then he took the lead in Florida. Then he began to wear down North Carolina of all places, a state I had assumed that would not vote for Barack Obama unless John McCain publicly came out as Gay, Muslim, and a Communist. Recently he actually took the lead in North Carolina, and has been steadily building that lead, one point at a time, on pace with his increases in Indiana and Missouri. People have begun talking about Georgia and South Carolina starting to turn a much lighter shade of pink than had been anticipated.

Now this new poll comes out, which even if it is wildly inaccurate, shows a very tight race in West Virginia developing. I figured (and was told by people on this board) that West Virginia had as much chance of voting for Obama as it did of voting for the re-incarnated shade of Joseph Stalin, but that was many weeks ago, and times, they are a-changin'. So I will ask Tev and Nitram and any others familiar on a local level with the great state of West Virginia for their analysis of Obama's chances within the state, as I cannot form a coherent opinion myself of a state I've never been within 500 miles of.

And besides, I was wrong about Virginia and North Carolina and Indiana. I'd love to be wrong here too... :)

[rhoenix]

If this is even remotely true, as you say, it shows a rather wonderful trend. Obama the man is impressive as Presidential material, but how his ground game impressive enough to likely be a model for future candidates, should he win. Just my opinion, but it's been rather impressive to watch.

[Cynical Cat]

Nitram has mentioned that West Virginia is in play because it's essentially ground zero of the American health care crisis and McCain's so called health-care plan is just plain horrible.

[SirNitram]

Link

This year's trendline by Pollster. Dots are polls, lines are projected changes from those snapshots. McCain has no presense here, and the Obama campaign increased theirs recently, as well as employing signifigant in-state resources through the 'safe' seats in Dem hands. Backlash against McCain, backlash against Bush(And through him, Capito), and Clinton's enthusiastic side-switch is shifting the state.

I don't know if it'll be enough. But we're starting to show as a contested state.

[General Havoc]

If this is even remotely true, as you say, it shows a rather wonderful trend. Obama the man is impressive as Presidential material, but how his ground game impressive enough to likely be a model for future candidates, should he win. Just my opinion, but it's been rather impressive to watch.

Not only do I want Obama to win, I want this style of campaigning to be vindicated, and shown to be more effective than McCain's "attack and spread fear" style. I want ambitious, power-hungry politicians in the future to look at Obama's campaign as the way they need to go about things if they want to win elections.

[rhoenix]

Not only do I want Obama to win, I want this style of campaigning to be vindicated, and shown to be more effective than McCain's "attack and spread fear" style. I want ambitious, power-hungry politicians in the future to look at Obama's campaign as the way they need to go about things if they want to win elections.

Amen to that sentiment.

While I'm dreaming, I'd also like to see some real debates between candidates (instead of modified two-person press conferences), and some tough questions asked much more often by the media.

[LadyTevar]

I am seeing far more Obama signs around the city than I am McCain signs. What I'm hearing again and again is "Why the hell/fuck did he pick Palin? I don't want her that close to President!"

Yes, folks, people in WV are afraid of what will happen if/when McCain dies in office. One reason for that? WV is a state full of Senior Citizens, who have seen friends and family fall prey to the ravages of Old Age. Some of them are McCain's age and know how close to death the man is.

The other reason is the grassroots nature of Obama's campaign. He's not buying up campaign ads and plastering them over the airwaves, interrupting football and NASCAR for it. He's being talked about by the neighbor next door, who heard it from their neighbor, or from a co-worker.

WVians are talking about this one, folks, and it's more than the "Shit, what's the difference" feeling of the last election. This time people are stirred up and listening.

[frigidmagi]

For the entire election season WV has been red or pink.

Pollster moved it into toss up this week. As did fivethirtyeight. This leads me to wonder if we're seeing the return of the New Deal coalition?

It was the Cold War that pretty much killed that coalition, but I don't see a Soviet Union around to rescue the Cold Warriors this time, do you?

[SirNitram]

For the entire election season WV has been red or pink.

Pollster moved it into toss up this week. As did fivethirtyeight. This leads me to wonder if we're seeing the return of the New Deal coalition?

It was the Cold War that pretty much killed that coalition, but I don't see a Soviet Union around to rescue the Cold Warriors this time, do you?

They'll try damn hard to manufacture them.

Look. McCain is, as far as this state is going, committing suicide. The enlistment rate here never went down, and he very publically opposed the GI Bill. Veterans groups hate him. That's what's wrong with HIM.

Palin is worse. She is a Seperatist and a Phony. WV may not love Big Government, but if the choice is a dangerous seperatist moments from the big seat and anything else, you will see a shift.

[frigidmagi]

They got about 3 weeks. Not enough time unless Russia invades Poland or China invades Russia. I doubt either nation is that fucking stupid.

[General Havoc]

A friend of mine is from Kentucky, and has a grandmother who is 89 and a virulent racist, being of that generation. When he spoke to his grandmother early week, he found to his astonishment that she was going to vote for Barack Obama. He asked her how it was that she was voting for a man she had called a "raghead nigger" weeks before, she who had never voted democrat in her life.

Her reply?

"Well, I mean, he's only half-nigger..."

I see this as evidence of something astounding. This woman, who fears and hates all black people has decided to vote for Obama because she fears and hates McCain more. I will submit that when you are republican, and you lose the white racist vote to a black man, you have screwed up pretty substantially.

Here's to hoping this is a trend.

[Charon]

Wow...

McCain really has screwed the pooch. I'm actually wondering now if I should get in contact with my highly conservative relatives and see how they're planning on voting.

[rhoenix]

Wow...

McCain really has screwed the pooch. I'm actually wondering now if I should get in contact with my highly conservative relatives and see how they're planning on voting.

I'd say do so. If there's a time for it, it's now.

[Derek Thunder]

They got about 3 weeks. Not enough time unless Russia invades Poland or China invades Russia. I doubt either nation is that fucking stupid.

Given the erratic and unhinged way McCain has responded to the economic crisis compared to Obama, something like this may actually hurt McCain.

[SirNitram]

According to the News Outlets, Sarah Palin campaigns in Huntington today.

Haha. Haha. Ha.

BULLSHIT!

KENOVA, W.Va. - Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin made a pit stop in West Virginia on her way to battleground state Ohio.

The Alaska governor and her family spent about 25 minutes in the state Sunday as their two-engine plane touched down at Tri-State Airport in Kenova. She made no remarks.

About a dozen supporters greeted Palin as she left the aircraft holding her infant son, Trig. Other members of her family were traveling with her.

A small group of protesters also was on hand as the Palins arrived.

After the brief stop, Palin and her political entourage boarded a bus and headed to the Ohio campaign rally accompanied by a motorcade.

GOP Presidential candidate John McCain and Palin are due in Virginia Monday for a rally.

Barely slowed down. I daresay that might hurt them a bit, seen running away from Huntington.

[LadyTevar]

They didn't even stop in the State Capitol, Charleston. Huntington Tri-State Airport is literally right on the border of Ohio and Kentucky.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton was at a rally Saturday, at the University of Charleston, right across the river from the Capitol Complex. She stumped for Anne Barth (running against Shelly Moore-Capito), as well as other Democrats within the state. Sen. Byrd was also there, and made his two-cents known very clearly -- Vote for Obama, vote for Anne Barth (a former aide of his).

Our beloved Senator Byrd also made some choice remarks about McCain and how bad he'd be for the State of WV.

[General Havoc]

There is a maddening lack of polling data in West Virginia. But let us all hope these efforts bear fruit.

[SirNitram]

No one polls it because no one thinks it's competitive. No one thinks it's competitive because the last poll they look to says it's not. And cue the vicious cycle.