EU admits Iran nuclear talks have failed

[frigidmagi]

Yahoo

LUXEMBOURG (AFP) - The
European Union has admitted that its nuclear talks with
Iran have run into a dead end and that it has been left with "no choice" but to return the matter to the UN Security Council.
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In a text adopted in Luxembourg Tuesday, EU foreign ministers expressed deep concern that Iran had not suspended uranium enrichment -- a process for fuelling a nuclear reactor but which could also be used to make an atomic bomb.

Major world powers have been debating whether to sanction Iran for ignoring an August 31 UN deadline to suspend the process, and preparations have been building for action at the Security Council.

"The council (of EU ministers) believed that Iran's continuation of enrichment related activities has left the EU no choice but to support consultations on such measures," they said in conclusions from their talks.

They "expressed deep concern that Iran has not yet suspended its enrichment-related and reprocessing activities as required" by the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the Security Council.

However the EU left open its door for further diplomacy.

"It reaffirmed its commitment to a negotiated solution, and that such a solution would contribute to the development of the EU's relations with Iran. It urged Iran to take the positive path on offer," the conclusions said.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has been leading months of talks to convince the Islamic republic to start negotiations on suspending enrichment in exchange for a package of political and economic incentives.

"Iran refused everything," French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told journalists. "So we are returning to the Security Council to find measures that can be phased in but which are reversible."

He said that would allow a return to diplomacy if Iran was ready for it.

For now that appears unlikely. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reaffirmed last week that his government would not back down.

"We have decided to firmly insist on the Iranian nation's right and move forward, step by step, with wisdom, calm, contemplation and patience," he said, adding that "Iran is ready to negotiate under a scientific, legal and reasonable framework."

Solana, for his part, said he remained hopeful that talks with Iran could resume despite the move back to the Security Council, and that he had held telephone talks Monday with top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani.

"It's up to the Security Council members to decide, but we want to keep the door open (to negotiations) as long as possible," he said.

But "it's up to Tehran to accept the conditions to start serious negotiations," said Solana, who tried in vain during for three months to convince the Iranians to stop uranium enrichment activities.

Finland, which currently holds the EU's rotating presidency, said the nature of any future sanctions had not been discussed at the talks in Luxembourg.

So far China and Russia, which both wield veto power on the Security Council, have balked at imposing the kind of punitive measures sought by the United States, with the backing of Britain

Okay, we did the talky thing. Well the Euros did the talky thing, but they're good at it. Now no one can say that negoation wasn't tried, and tried and tried again. Now what?

[Mayabird]

Okay, we did the talky thing. Well the Euros did the talky thing, but they're good at it. Now no one can say that negoation wasn't tried, and tried and tried again. Now what?

The plan seems to be to take the talkie thing to the UN. I wonder what the plan is after that fails. Writing a strongly worded letter?

[frigidmagi]

[French mode]A strongly worded letter! Surely the situation is not so serious as to push us that far![/French mode]

Maybe I can hope the assholes in Tehran get a papercut or something from it...

[Josh]

Nuclear war, eventually. The genie is pretty much out of the bottle these days. The real question is going to be as to whether the damage is reasonably localized or we get the 'if one flies, they all fly' scenario.

[frigidmagi]

Well I guess I should start asking how Pakistan and Iran get on these days then...

[Stofsk]

Nuclear war, eventually. The genie is pretty much out of the bottle these days. The real question is going to be as to whether the damage is reasonably localized or we get the 'if one flies, they all fly' scenario.

This whole thing will blow over. Literally.

...

Yes, he can joke!

[Josh]

Yes, he can joke!

I knew you had it in you!

[Stofsk]

Yes, he can joke!

I knew you had it in you!

No, what I have in me is three cups of coffee.

EDIT: Four, now.

[SirNitram]

[French mode]A strongly worded letter! Surely the situation is not so serious as to push us that far![/French mode]

Maybe I can hope the assholes in Tehran get a papercut or something from it...

The US sanctions have made Iran a crumbling state. Should the UN institute ones, it will fold like a house of cards well before they can finish a bomb.

And pity the stupid fucks if they bought their plans from Khan.

[frigidmagi]

What makes you think China and Russia won't veto sanctions Nitram?

[Josh]

One problem. The other is that the whole 'imminent collapse of Iran' scenario has been touted for a while now, and hasn't happened.

So I'll believe it when I see it.

[Caz]

One problem. The other is that the whole 'imminent collapse of Iran' scenario has been touted for a while now, and hasn't happened.

So I'll believe it when I see it.

I remember when there was supposedly going to be an 'imminent collapse of Ireland.' Sometimes U.S. analysts are veeeery mistaken.

Unless I slept through Ireland's collapse or something.

[Josh]

Some days, I feel like the Iranian regime is akin to a protracted game of Jenga. Every block that comes out you're expecting the tower to collapse, but it doesn't.

[SirNitram]

One problem. The other is that the whole 'imminent collapse of Iran' scenario has been touted for a while now, and hasn't happened.

So I'll believe it when I see it.

Birthrate is something like 1.6 and still falling. The economy is state run and all losing money. Something like 80% of the population wants something done about the economy, not nuclear weapons.

Of course, it's easy to be a dismissive idiot than to look up facts.

You want the reason it's holding together now? You want the dark little truth not American analyst will admit because he'd be fired so fast his fucking head would spin like the guy in the Exorcist?

As long as you have fear of outsiders, you can keep going for a while. And the US has been rattling the sabre.. Just as it was supposed to. The US is dancing to Iran's tune, and as long as it does, Iran will persist, because it gets the influence, prestige, and stability of being America's 'Great Enemy'.

[Josh]

Birthrate is something like 1.6 and still falling. The economy is state run and all losing money. Something like 80% of the population wants something done about the economy, not nuclear weapons.

Previously, it was the fact that they've had to import foreign mercenaries for crowd control for some time now, among other factors such as the low birthrate and abysmal economy.

North Korea has been a shithole for decades. Tianamen, at the time, was considered a potential ignition point for nationwide revolution or at least large-scale changes in China. These sort of countries can totter along a great while on what literally amounts to murderous inertia.

Of course, it's easy to be a dismissive idiot than to look up facts.

Also easy to assume that the guy you're talking to doesn't have an acquaintance with the issue, boyo.

You want the reason it's holding together now? You want the dark little truth not American analyst will admit because he'd be fired so fast his fucking head would spin like the guy in the Exorcist?

As long as you have fear of outsiders, you can keep going for a while. And the US has been rattling the sabre.. Just as it was supposed to. The US is dancing to Iran's tune, and as long as it does, Iran will persist, because it gets the influence, prestige, and stability of being America's 'Great Enemy'.

No shit. And if it wasn't us, it'd be somebody else. Despotic regimes always thrive on external threats. We obligingly fill the role, but even if there weren't real threats in the area, they'd manufacture them.

I hope the regime collapses. Tonight would be nice, tomorrow wouldn't be too bad. But until it actually does start coming down, I'm not going to hold out hope.

[SirNitram]

Birthrate is something like 1.6 and still falling. The economy is state run and all losing money. Something like 80% of the population wants something done about the economy, not nuclear weapons.

Previously, it was the fact that they've had to import foreign mercenaries for crowd control for some time now, among other factors such as the low birthrate and abysmal economy.

And? What's the damn point? Hasn't happened yet, so blow it off? Ah, a brilliant plan. Same as why it was safe to dismiss the idea the USSR wouldn't last, because it had lasted until WW2.

North Korea has been a shithole for decades. Tianamen, at the time, was considered a potential ignition point for nationwide revolution or at least large-scale changes in China. These sort of countries can totter along a great while on what literally amounts to murderous inertia.

Yes, they can. However, I've yet to see any evidence that Iran will be able to sustain the same as North Korea. Perhaps you could provide some, since this is part of your claims.

Of course, it's easy to be a dismissive idiot than to look up facts.

Also easy to assume that the guy you're talking to doesn't have an acquaintance with the issue, boyo.

Sorry, kid. You need to provide more than 'Well, it's been said before' to actually rebutt them.

You want the reason it's holding together now? You want the dark little truth not American analyst will admit because he'd be fired so fast his fucking head would spin like the guy in the Exorcist?

As long as you have fear of outsiders, you can keep going for a while. And the US has been rattling the sabre.. Just as it was supposed to. The US is dancing to Iran's tune, and as long as it does, Iran will persist, because it gets the influence, prestige, and stability of being America's 'Great Enemy'.

No shit. And if it wasn't us, it'd be somebody else. Despotic regimes always thrive on external threats. We obligingly fill the role, but even if there weren't real threats in the area, they'd manufacture them.

And yet, they've grown in international prestige, which grants them more foreign mercs, which grants them more opportunities for internal holding it down, since they had a real threat.

Because a manufactured threat isn't as good as the real deal.

[Josh]

And? What's the damn point? Hasn't happened yet, so blow it off? Ah, a brilliant plan. Same as why it was safe to dismiss the idea the USSR wouldn't last, because it had lasted until WW2.

Never said it wouldn't happen. I'd love to see it happen, but I'm not buying into the doomsday scenarios until they actually start to come to fruition.

Yes, they can. However, I've yet to see any evidence that Iran will be able to sustain the same as North Korea. Perhaps you could provide some, since this is part of your claims.

Evidence such as what? Preponderance of military power in the hands of the government, allowing them to largely dictate affairs within the country with impunity? Check. External menace to distract the populace with? Check. If anything, they have more safety valves than the NK regime, given that they have the semblance of representative government that's unavailable to the NK populace.

To grab another example, Saddam's regime failed to collapse onto itself despite some fairly brutal sanctions.

Sorry, kid. You need to provide more than 'Well, it's been said before' to actually rebutt them.

If I'm a kid, you're still in diapers, baby boy. Let's check the historical precedent here- you reference the collapse of the USSR. Hm. There weren't economic sanctions involved there. Hell, we were propping up their ag industry all to hell and back, being as how they couldn't come close to feeding their own people.

Evidence that external isolation works... North Korea. Cuba. Iraq.

Oh, wait.

And yet, they've grown in international prestige, which grants them more foreign mercs,

They don't need prestige for mercs, just money. That is one area where total economic isolation could well lead to their ruination, assuming (as in Frigid's point which you didn't address) sanctions make it past the UNSC unvetoed.

which grants them more opportunities for internal holding it down, since they had a real threat.

It's been over fifty years since US forces crossed the 38th parallel. Essentially, excepting times when we've actively engaged with them on the international front (the recent nuclear issue being a prime example), our threat has been more manufactured than real, yet it's sufficed.

Because a manufactured threat isn't as good as the real deal.

What is Israel but a manufactured threat? Israeli tanks haven't ever been a threat to come rolling through Tehran, yet they use Israel to score points with the populace.

[SirNitram]

And? What's the damn point? Hasn't happened yet, so blow it off? Ah, a brilliant plan. Same as why it was safe to dismiss the idea the USSR wouldn't last, because it had lasted until WW2.

Never said it wouldn't happen. I'd love to see it happen, but I'm not buying into the doomsday scenarios until they actually start to come to fruition.

In case you didn't bother to read, I said they were hurting from one nation's sanctions, and that if you lumped on more.. Taking action as opposed to sitting upon one's ass.. It would worsen catastrophically. You have yet to provide jack or shit to rebutt this, just gone on with 'Heard it before' and pretend that's a rebuttal.

[Josh]

In case you didn't bother to read, I said they were hurting from one nation's sanctions, and that if you lumped on more.. Taking action as opposed to sitting upon one's ass.. It would worsen catastrophically. You have yet to provide jack or shit to rebutt this, just gone on with 'Heard it before' and pretend that's a rebuttal.

Because 'I've heard it before' and 'I'll believe it when I see it' were exactly my point. Assuming that further sanctions were to make it through, we have a lot of counterexamples where externally-induced economic collapses have failed to induce regime change, such as right the fuck next door or in North Korea.

To be very clear- I'm all for full sanctions. Right now, it's the best course we've got absent a large-scale bombing campaign or turning the sand into glass, which is obviously out the window unless they initiate the conflict.

But I'm not pinning my hopes on bringing the regime down this way, in part because of the very factor you've mentioned- it'll give them more in the way of Great Satan to toss around internally when the food supply runs low and the medicinals fall out of stock.

By the way, LONG TIME NO SEE MARTIN, MISSED THE FUCK OUTTA YA. HOW'S TEV?

[SirNitram]

In case you didn't bother to read, I said they were hurting from one nation's sanctions, and that if you lumped on more.. Taking action as opposed to sitting upon one's ass.. It would worsen catastrophically. You have yet to provide jack or shit to rebutt this, just gone on with 'Heard it before' and pretend that's a rebuttal.

Because 'I've heard it before' and 'I'll believe it when I see it' were exactly my point. Assuming that further sanctions were to make it through, we have a lot of counterexamples where externally-induced economic collapses have failed to induce regime change, such as right the fuck next door or in North Korea.

Given that the present fear is that Iran will fund outside groups or produce nukes, Cuba is a good solution until a real plan for improving the situation can be enabled. Cuba is doing neither, you'll notice.

To be very clear- I'm all for full sanctions. Right now, it's the best course we've got absent a large-scale bombing campaign or turning the sand into glass, which is obviously out the window unless they initiate the conflict.

Quite so.

But I'm not pinning my hopes on bringing the regime down this way, in part because of the very factor you've mentioned- it'll give them more in the way of Great Satan to toss around internally when the food supply runs low and the medicinals fall out of stock.

True, there is that. Which is why the US can't afford to keep playing by itself.

By the way, LONG TIME NO SEE MARTIN, MISSED THE FUCK OUTTA YA. HOW'S TEV?

She's good, I'm good, neither of us have nearly died in months.

It's kinda depressing that's the measuring stick.

[Josh]

Given that the present fear is that Iran will fund outside groups or produce nukes, Cuba is a good solution until a real plan for improving the situation can be enabled. Cuba is doing neither, you'll notice.

Cuba's not in a position to project power regionally and beyond their old business of the odd bit of revolution exportation, don't have the interest in doing so. They've got nothing to gain by nukes because they never have had a prospect of achieving prominence militarily, a position they'd be in regardless of sanctions.

North Korea, on the other hand, has pursued nuclear development to the utter detriment of their public. Given that the Iranian regime was willing to send kids out to be minesweepers, they are obviously quite willing to the a heavy price to achieve their objectives as well.

Hopefully, we are going to clamp down. Hopefully that'll be what finally tips them over, or at least renders them incapable of moving forward with their program.

Best of all, hopefully they buy their schematics from Khan.

True, there is that. Which is why the US can't afford to keep playing by itself.

Regardless, it will be presented as the Great Satan and the Zionists leading the rest of the world against them. That aspect won't change one whit.

She's good, I'm good, neither of us have nearly died in months.

It's kinda depressing that's the measuring stick.

I know the feeling.

Edit- I speel gud.

[SirNitram]

Best of all, hopefully they buy their schematics from Khan.

Yes. Also, I will share this bit of good news.

Dr. Jeffery Lewis on the new cascade at Natanz. Included: Talking about how, as I predicted a while back, Iranian uranium is 'dirty' and doesn't play well in their centrifuges.

The likelihood they bought from Khan is up, as his shit was junk.

Edit- I speel gud.

Yes, yes you do. Have a kipper.

[frigidmagi]

Best of all, hopefully they buy their schematics from Khan

It should be noted that in his confession Khan listed both N Korea and Iran as buyers.