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BBC

The organisers of a march against Islam say they will appeal against a decision to refuse them a permit.

The mayor of Brussels refused permission for the 11 September march by Stop the Islamisation of Europe, saying it would disturb public order.

His decision has been upheld by a Belgian court, but now the marchers plan to appeal to the highest court in the land for an urgent decision.

And the Danish branch of the alliance says its members will march anyway.

The alliance wants to hold the demonstration on the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the US.

Its slogans include No to Sharia Law and Democracy Not Theocracy.

Brussels has a substantial Muslim population.

The German organiser, Udo Ulfkotte, says the marchers' freedom of speech has been denied by the ban and rejects any suggestion of ties to extremist neo-Nazi groups.

He says a new political party in Germany will be formed as a result of the ban on the Brussels march.

It will act as a sponge, he says, for all those who are fed up with politicians and want equal rights for everybody.

I would like to note quickly that these groups have marched before in the past (very recently) and have generally been nonviolent. I've accessed a few of their websites (The Gates of Vennia blog is one, read the comments) and they seem to feel that it may be a trap and that if they show up riot police will pretty much attack them on sight. Most of the people I've talked to that identify with these groups do not profess any fascist or racist beliefs.

That said, I cannot claim to have talked to the majority as this a group made of up of thousands of people.

Anyone who speaks against Islam or immigration will be called a Fascist, a Neo-Nazi, a Racist, etc etc. Since the organisers of this demonstration have connections to Flemish seperatists, and anti-Islamist groups, and are gathering supporters from same... well obviously "Neo-Nazis" are organising to demonstrate.

Obviously from the PoV of the press anyway.

As for what will happen? Well basically I see three cases:

* Best Case
The police watch the gathered SIOE crowds carefully, and try to keep them apart from the anti-American demonstraters scheduled for the same day. The SIOE demonstration stops for a moment of silence, and then disperses peacefully.

* Middle Case
The protest gathers peacefully, but the police have set up roadblocks to keep them away from sensitive areas (Parliament building, town hall etc). There's some skirmishes in the outskirts of these roadblocks, and the police make forrays into the demonstration to arrest random people. After a quick minute of silence the demonstration disperses to avoid further confrontation.

* Worst Case
Pandemonium breaks out by agent provocateurs, an attack from counter-demonstrators, or a refusal to disperse when read the riot act. The hows and the whys aren't so important, if all hell breaks loose the police are (I think) unlikely to care how it started. We're talking riot police, watercannon, and horses. We're talking cracked heads, nosebleeds, and arrests.

So which will it be? I have no idea, and I dare say that neither does anyone else. There are too many variables to tell. What is clear is that the Best Case will be ignored by the European press, and the Middle and Worst case will be played up as "Neo-Nazis rioting in Brussels."