LibriumArcana.Games

llinois Sen. Barack Obama will win Sunday's Democratic caucuses in Maine, sweeping the weekend's presidential contests, CNN projects.
art.obama.ap.jpg

Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, speaks during a rally Saturday, in Bangor, Maine.

With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Obama was leading Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York 59 percent to 40 percent. At stake are 24 delegates to August's Democratic national convention in Denver.

Obama's projected victory follows wins in Saturday's Louisiana primary and Democratic caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Those contests gave him a lead over Clinton in pledged delegates to the convention, but Clinton still held a narrow edge over Obama when "superdelegates" -- elected officials and party leaders -- are included in the tally. Video Watch Obama talk about how he can beat McCain »

The last caucuses were expected to wrap up by 8 p.m. in Maine, most of which was under winter storm warnings or snow advisories Sunday afternoon.

After Saturday's results and a split decision in last week's "Super Tuesday" contests, Clinton shook up her campaign Sunday by replacing campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle with a longtime adviser Maggie Williams, her campaign announced Sunday.
Don't Miss

* Clinton replaces campaign manager
* Obama gains momentum with victories

Advisers also sought to lower expectations for this month's remaining Democratic contests, which are expected to favor Obama, to focus on a larger cache of delegates up for grabs in March.

"Although the next several states that hold nominating contests this month are more favorable to the Obama campaign, we will continue to compete in them and hope to secure as many delegates as we can before the race turns to Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania," read a statement from Clinton's campaign.
advertisement

Those states have high concentrations of voters who have been strong Clinton supporters -- Latinos in Texas, and blue-collar workers in Ohio and Pennsylvania. But Joe Trippi, an adviser to former Democratic contender John Edwards, said Sunday Obama had "a full head of steam" after Saturday's wins and was poised to win this week's "Potomac Primaries" in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia.

"It's hard to see a win for Sen. Clinton into March, into Ohio and Texas, which I think was what they're counting on," Trippi told CBS' "Face the Nation." "But even that's in jeopardy, I think, as Obama builds some momentum here.

The states that matter
by kos
Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:17:58 AM PST

This post was inspired by a comment I read earlier yesterday, which I can't find now, so apologies for the unsourced inspiration.

One of the hilarious side-effects of every Obama victory is the spin from Clinton quarters and its surrogates and supporters explaining why said victories "don't matter".

Iowa didn't matter because it was a caucus state, and it's undemocratic. Same goes for every other caucus state including Maine. The only caucus state that mattered was Nevada.

Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Alaska, and Utah don't matter because they're small Red states that Democrats won't carry in November.

Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Louisiana don't matter because they have black people. Expect the same spin out of DC this Tuesday. Black people don't apparently count.

Washington and Minnesota don't matter because they have educated white people.

In any case, Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana didn't matter on Saturday because everyone expected Obama to win them anyway.

Virginia and Maryland, assuming they're won by Obama, will be a combination of the "black people" and "educated people" rationalizations. Throw a little of "Obama was expected to win anyway", and you've got the trifecta.

Illinois doesn't matter because that's Obama's home state. Expect the same spin when Obama wins Hawaii by double-digit margins in two weeks.

Missouri doesn't matter because Clinton sent out a press release claiming she won it.

Colorado was a caucus state, so that leaves Delaware and Connecticut. Those are the only two states that apparently matter, giving Hillary Clinton a commanding 10-2 lead among states that matter.

One final line of attack used to minimize Obama's victories is the notion that "he can't win states without his base", his base of course being African Americans, white yuppies, and Red state Democrats. Yet the corollary of that is what? That Hillary can't win states that

1.) she hasn't lived in (New York and Arkansas),

2.) aren't next to states she has lived in (Tennessee, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma),

3.) don't share a media market with states she has lived in (New Hampshire), or

4.) are outside the Southwest with its large Latino population (California, which she won with the strength of her SoCal vote, Arizona, Nevada and probably New Mexico).

Pretty silly game, huh?

Incidentally, if these stupid generalizations were to actually hold true the rest of this primary, the states would fall like this:

Clinton: Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania.

Obama: Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota.

Neither: Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky

But that's not what the final tally will look like.

p.s. Interestingly enough, other than New Mexico, the only other razor-thin contest thus far was Missouri -- a state which borders both Illinois and Arkansas. So in the battle of "neighboring state contest", Obama won, but only by a hair, and only because the Illinois-Missouri border is longer than the Arkansas-Missouri one.

Incidentally, if these stupid generalizations were to actually hold true the rest of this primary, the states would fall like this:

Clinton: Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania.

Obama: Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota.

Neither: Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky

LadyTevar wrote:

Incidentally, if these stupid generalizations were to actually hold true the rest of this primary, the states would fall like this:

Clinton: Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania.

Obama: Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota.

Neither: Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky

I find the last three highly amusing.