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#1 Convention bumps are so fleeting...
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:09 pm
by General Havoc
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/ ... 535/599497
Here are Sarah Palin's daily approval numbers from the Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll:
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
9/11: 52 35 13 +17
9/12: 51 37 12 +14
9/13: 49 40 11 +9
9/14: 47 42 11 +5
9/15: 47 43 10 +4
In the span of five days, Palin has gone from +17 to +4 -- a statistically significant shift. This includes the Gibson interview as well as the media's sudden focus late last week on the Palin/McCain lies. In comparison, Biden is at 48/32/20, Obama is at 54/38/8, and McCain is at 51/45/4.
So Palin may not be the least popular of the four -- McCain is, but she is certainly the least liked of the four candidates, and given that both Obama and Biden are at +16 favorability, McCain's +6 and and Palin's +4 point to a fundamental weakness that will likely play a role moving forward.
How about McCain in that time period?
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
9/11: 55 44 1 +11
9/12: 56 43 1 +13
9/13: 55 43 2 +12
9/14: 53 44 3 +9
9/15: 51 45 4 +6
Not as dramatic a collapse as Palin, but still bleeding some popularity from the media's sudden focus on the dishonorable campaign McCain has run. (So dishonorable, remember, that even Karl Rove thinks the McCain/Palin campaign has gone too far. And Fox News too.)
And you can tell the Obama campaign senses an opportunity, since they're pressing the issue:
None of this should suggest that Palin has been a bad pick for McCain. His campaign would be dead in the water right now had he chosen Romney, Pawlenty or Lieberman. If nothing else, Palin has reengaged the Christian Right, and their grassroots capabilities can never be underestimated. She has brought back the GOP base. But it was still a hail mary pass, and now we get to see, as her record is fully aired, her initial popularity ebb away.
That may not have much of an effect on Republicans, who will shrug away every lie and distortion and smear as a necessary evil in pursuit of victory, but it will hopefully take its toll on McCain's still-significant support among independents and Democrats.
#2
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:15 pm
by SirNitram
Research 2000? Markos is a smart cookie. No jest there. They're a very solid firm that I've always found very good at what they do, even if they generally only do comissioned research. If they're reporting the bounce is dying, I believe it.
#3
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:19 pm
by FickityTwists
I am not entirely shocked that Palins popularity dropped so much so quickly.
#4
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:34 pm
by frigidmagi
I'm not surprised, everything from Time to People and even the tabloid rags are running stories about how fucking CRAZY this women is.
If this keeps up expect more downshift.
#5
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:40 pm
by FickityTwists
As time goes on I have found more and more people using this image. Makes you think. If people are using this image as a message to others, maybe there is hope yet.
#6
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:50 pm
by General Havoc
Fivethirtyeight.org, the site Nitram introduced me to, went out and said several weeks ago that because of the convention bounces, the next few weeks of poling data were going to make first the Republicans, then the Democrats panic. They also said that the Demos were going to panic more than the Republicans, because the Republican bounce was going to come second, and fade only after both conventions were old news, and so the Dems would think for a while that it was the end of the world and all was lost, when in reality all we had to do was wait for the bounces to fade and then see where people lie.
I think they're starting.
#7
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:03 pm
by frigidmagi
That said, I think Obama's campaign needs to focus back on the economy and less on Palin.
#8
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:11 pm
by FickityTwists
frigidmagi wrote:That said, I think Obama's campaign needs to focus back on the economy and less on Palin.
I hear that! I mean a good goal now would be for Obama to focus on Ike's disasterous wake and how we can stop price increases in gas and turn to natural resources.
Things like that. I liked Obama because he wasnt resorting to the dirty tricks the Republicans are. Yet, he is beginning to do just that. He is focusing too much on Palin and not enough on the economy and such.
*sigh* I will just have to wait out the week to see if he stops and starts being the smarter politician here.
#9
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:16 pm
by rhoenix
If Obama and Biden just completely ignore Palin now, she'll eventually have to shriek to seem relevant.
If the Democrats don't make a big issue out of it, then half of her reason for being there in the first place (sensationalism, attempting to appeal to Hillary voters in a very misguided and ignorant fashion) is removed.
#10
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:30 pm
by Comrade Tortoise
FickityTwists wrote:As time goes on I have found more and more people using this image. Makes you think. If people are using this image as a message to others, maybe there is hope yet.
Except that the dumb bitch is indeed nestled firmly within the creationist camp
#11
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:14 pm
by FickityTwists
True, but I thought it would add some humor to the bad taste in our mouthes that Palin has left.
#12
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:36 pm
by Comrade Tortoise
FickityTwists wrote:True, but I thought it would add some humor to the bad taste in our mouthes that Palin has left.
left? more like still causes. The idea that Sarah Palin exists is itself an abomination, let alone actually does exist.
As for bad tastes in the mouth... lets just say that I know those all to well*
*
Never, ever suck off a guy with poor dietary habits
#13
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:17 pm
by FickityTwists
... There are some things I didnt need to know. Comrade, that last bit was one of them.
I didnt even have to do anything to it, I knew what it said.
#14
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:23 pm
by Comrade Tortoise
FickityTwists wrote:... There are some things I didnt need to know. Comrade, that last bit was one of them.
I didnt even have to do anything to it, I knew what it said.
Do I know you from another board? *giggles*
In any case, I am unfathomably glad her approval ratings have dropped. I will need to compile a list of reasons to hate her, and circulate it among my mothers redneck friends though, hopefully they can be disabused of their love for her if they see something other than fox news wanking to her image