Iceland 'could join EU by 2011'

[frigidmagi]

BBC

Iceland could be fast-tracked to join the EU within two years, to help the small Nordic state out of its economic crisis, a top EU official says.

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said that if Iceland applied soon, it could join at the same time as Croatia, which is expected to become a member by 2011.

But Iceland is yet to decide if it wants to join the 27-nation bloc.

Icelandic politicians say they expect to reach a deal on Friday on a new centre-left coalition government.

Iceland's banking system collapsed in October, causing its currency, the krona, to plummet and prompting the government to arrange $10bn in emergency financing from the International Monetary Fund and several European countries.

The crisis has stunned a nation that enjoyed one of the world's highest living standards during the stock market boom.

ICELAND'S WOES
October 2008 - Government takes control of three largest banks
20 November - IMF approves $2.1bn (£1.4bn) loan for Iceland
26 November - Annual inflation rate hits record 17.1%
20 January 2009 - Economy forecast to shrink by 9.6% in 2009
23 January - PM Geir Haarde calls snap election for 9 May
26 January - Government resigns following breakdown of coalition


Timeline: Iceland's crisis
Icelandic crisis: Your comments
Reality bites in Iceland

Social Affairs Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir is widely expected to be named as an interim prime minister - and would become the world's first openly gay politician to hold such a post.

President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson asked the Social Democrats and the opposition Left-Green Party to form a new government to replace the administration of Geir Haarde. He resigned as prime minister on Monday following angry public protests.

The BBC's Oana Lungescu in Brussels says Iceland has already adopted two-thirds of EU rules, so its accession talks could go much faster than the five years Croatia has spent negotiating. Croatia is widely expected to join the EU by 2011.

But Iceland still has to make up its mind to apply and the Left-Green Party, favoured to win early elections in May, has so far campaigned against joining the EU, mainly because of concerns about fisheries policy.

Swapping the battered krona for the euro could also take several years, our correspondent says.

Iceland would first need to be a member of the EU and then prove it can comply with the strict discipline of the single currency.

Iceland's Social Democrats want to replace the governor of the central bank, whom many blame for the country's sudden lurch from prosperity to economic meltdown.

They also reportedly want to hold a referendum on EU membership.

The economy is forecast to shrink by almost 10% this year.

Yeah but will the EU let them in?

Seriously though this economic crisis could be the real launch point for the EU and the Euro as nations (like the UK and Norway) who have previously refused to give up their money or enter the EU do so in a bid to shore up their economic life. Course it could also be the thing that kills it, see the Euro jobs thread for that.

[The Minx]

There is no way joining the EU would magically improve things for Iceland. Not only would the application process take a couple of years, minimum, but countries who are not only part of the EU like the UK, but in some cases the Euro as well fared little better. Case in point, the Irish banking system collapsed too (Ireland is both in the EU and has the Euro). The problem in Iceland was a bloated banking sector (whose liabilities were TEN times the GDP!) and lack of sensible financial policies.

[frigidmagi]

Yes, but to be blunt for nations like Iceland, which are even worse off then Ireland, even that slow chance of improvement may be better then their chances on their own.

[Norseman]

The EU is turning into a country. A country organised according to the same pattern as the Soviet Union. There is no accountability and no sense of solidarity. Worse yet the people who hate the EU hate it more than they hate hell, and the people who love it, love it less than their breakfast. That's what I think.

[General Havoc]

To be honest, Norseman's not far off the mark on this one. I think Iceland might want to think long and hard about this.

[Derek Thunder]

There is a certain whiff of a Faustian bargain here, but Iceland is really in dire financial straits.

That being said, the EU was only created within the last two decades, it may take longer for a pan-European identity to emerge that sees the EU as a necessary and desirable system. After all, it was really only after the civil war that Americans saw the US as a nation rather than a collection of states with disparate interests.

[frigidmagi]

That being said, the EU was only created within the last two decades, it may take longer for a pan-European identity to emerge that sees the EU as a necessary and desirable system. After all, it was really only after the civil war that Americans saw the US as a nation rather than a collection of states with disparate interests.

There are some radical differences here Derek. Such as the 13 colonies/states that founded the US had a common identity, a common history and language and had worked together to fight the Revolution. Futher more most everyone agreed that a federal government in some form was needed. When the Constitution was brought in it was voted on and passed by not only the governments of the states in question but by the voters of each state (I would say the people but by our standards the vote was insanely limited back then). There were plenty of people who saw the US as a single nation (May He Be Damned Forever Andrew Jackson's response to the idea that states can ignore national law? Threaten to raise an army and hang the state's leaders) before the civil war and that only got stronger until it won out rather violently in said civil war.

The Europeans lack that. Attempts to create a common identity have been largely top down (field trips for university students and such for example). They don't have a common history or language and as early as 20 years ago half the continent was aiming guns at the other half. The fact that those engaged in creating the EU had seem to decide that the voters of the states in the question are not to be allowed to decide doesn't help their case either.

To be fair lacking a common language or history isn't that big of a problem. Americans often can't agree on what really happened say in the 1960s. Some call it an averted suicide attempt, others the glory days and others a logical reaction to the horrors of World War II and the repression of the 1950s. Canada is split between French and English speakers. There is a growing minority of Spanish speakers in the US.

The problem in my view is the locking out of the population in the discussion. Such things rarely if ever end well.

That said I tend to be pretty neutral on the EU. If the nations and peoples of Europe wish to create such a thing or not it is their right and freedom to do so and we should not attempt to kick out their wheels. I just wish we could be sure it was their will being enacted and not the will of the suits over in Brussels.