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#1 Colombia beefs up forces on border with Venezuela

Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 10:54 pm
by frigidmagi
BBC
The Colombian government has announced it is building a new military base on its border with Venezuela and has activated six new airborne battalions.

Relations between the two nations are at a historic low with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez already telling his generals to prepare for war.

He moved 15,000 more troops up to the border, accusing Colombia and its ally, the US, of planning an attack.

A BBC correspondent says the potential for conflict is heightened.

Colombian Defence Minister Gabriel Silva announced the formation of a new base in La Guajira in the north, near the Venezuelan border.

At the same time, the Colombian army activated the new airborne battalions, which are equipped with US helicopters.

The helicopter fleet, made up mainly of Blackhawks, now numbers 120, making the Colombian Army Air Corps the best equipped and most experienced in Latin America, the BBC's Jeremy McDermott in Colombia says.

Preparing for war

President Chavez has criticised a pact announced last month allowing US troops to use several bases in Colombia.

Mr Silva said that the new base would have up to 1,000 soldiers.

It would, he added, also have a care facility for indigenous Wayuu people who live in the area.

Since Venezuelans were told by Mr Chavez to prepare for war and the Venezuelan army starting blowing up bridges that link the two nations, Colombia has been overhauling its defence strategy.

Until now this strategy has been geared almost exclusively to fighting the country's 45-year Marxist insurgency.

With the increasing build-up of military on both sides of the border, the potential for conflict is heightened, particularly when one considers 2,000 rebels in the border region prepared for a fight between the two nations, our correspondent says.
Oh Boy... To be honest I'm still pretty sure it won't actually get to a war. If nothing else the logistics of such a campaign would be hell. But I've been wrong before.

#2

Posted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:26 am
by Steve
I think Chavez may see this as a win-win-win in his position.

If there is no war, he can claim that his strong stance against American oppression and their Colombian puppets saved Venezuela from war.

If there is a war and he wins, he can claim to be the great visionary leader who defeated the imperialist Yankees and who brought Bolivarian democracy to Colombia.

If there is a war and he loses, then clearly the military, filled as it is with secret American agents and Yankee sympathizers, has betrayed Venezuela and must be reformed, giving him an excuse to get rid of any officer whom he doesn't consider 100% loyal.

#3

Posted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:29 am
by The Minx
Unless he loses and is deposed as a result by coup or velvet revolution or if the the army turning its back on him. But I doubt either of these things will happen.

#4

Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2009 1:12 am
by Steve
The final option presumes he doesn't have the necessary support to prevent an army coup, which I doubt. He's already stopped one coup and undoubtedly used that as an excuse to quietly deal with military leaders he considered insufficiently loyal.

Odds are that the defeat would have to be major and coupled with enormous economic problem for popular opposition to Chavez to be at a level that the army leadership might feel confident to support an overthrow.