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Timesonline

[quote]China’s “one couple, one childâ€

I wonder how much push it would take to cause widespread social breakdown and anarchy across China, and what impact that would have on their economic prowess.

I'm betting on a revolution, as the young, desperate males turn to extremism.

An entire cohort of youths just like this. Utterly denied a chance to mate via conventional means, they turn to alternative and much sadder methods to attract female companions. Imagine an army of Chris-chans larger than the population of Texas and you have the future of China.

The problem wasn't the one child policy per se, the problem is that the Chinese implemented such a policy without addressing or compensating for their cultural baggage. China couldn't afford to not forcibly limit their population growth any more than they can afford 30 million sexually frustated youths. I won't even blame the Communist Party for not forseeing that the one child policy would result in a widening gender gap, you can't forsee everything, but rather for sitting on their hands when this unwanted consequence became evident. I mean, how long has it been general knowledge that female babies in China are aborted or abandoned? I think we're going on two decades now, which suggests to me that the Chinese leadership knew what was going on less than decade after the policy was implemented. They could have started tweaking it right then, and saved themselves the upcoming demographic crisis.

But they did not do anything when they should have, so I guess now all they can do is start promoting man on man sex and throwing pride parades.

I can't disagree with you Hadri, although honestly I want to. The One Child Policy was likely a necessary evil, although I frankly loathe such a intrusion of state power into private life.

I have to point out something though, most of the people in power shared the baggage. Where were you gonna find people to apply the breaks?

frigidmagi wrote:I can't disagree with you Hadri, although honestly I want to. The One Child Policy was likely a necessary evil, although I frankly loathe such a intrusion of state power into private life.

I have to point out something though, most of the people in power shared the baggage. Where were you gonna find people to apply the breaks?

India has it worse. They've got the exploding population and (illegal but widespread anyway) sex selection abortion resulting in unbalanced gender ratios.

The birth rate in India is actually dropping, the gender imbalance is gonna be interesting due to the fact that we actually... Have really next to no data on it.

frigidmagi wrote:The birth rate in India is actually dropping, the gender imbalance is gonna be interesting due to the fact that we actually... Have really next to no data on it.

Not dropping fast enough, and last generation's 6 child family continues to feed population growth even if the birthrate drops to replacement levels only. A generation ago, you had maybe one grandparrent, two parents, six children. Now you theoretically have two grandparrents, 12 parents +spouses and 12.6 children. It's still a bigger population, and it can keep increasing, albeit not at the same percentage rate.

As for the sex ratio, the CIA World Factbook has these numbers. Estimates only, but I don't think they're too far from the mark.

at birth: 1.12 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.1 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.9 male(s)/female
total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2009 est.)

Fuck. .12 is a huge number when you multiply by 500 million+.

Yeah but the CIA is known for screwing things up.

Mmmmm demographic collapse....

Well, it'll help curb the population curve at the end of the 21st century. India's beginning to get the 'let's industralize and drop our birth rate' crash, but the bar's been set so high by their initial population that it's only going to help so much.

Slacker wrote:Well, it'll help curb the population curve at the end of the 21st century. India's beginning to get the 'let's industralize and drop our birth rate' crash, but the bar's been set so high by their initial population that it's only going to help so much.

On the plus side, while India is considerably smaller than China, they actually have more arable land.

Hadrianvs wrote:The problem wasn't the one child policy per se, the problem is that the Chinese implemented such a policy without addressing or compensating for their cultural baggage. China couldn't afford to not forcibly limit their population growth any more than they can afford 30 million sexually frustated youths. I won't even blame the Communist Party for not forseeing that the one child policy would result in a widening gender gap, you can't forsee everything, but rather for sitting on their hands when this unwanted consequence became evident. I mean, how long has it been general knowledge that female babies in China are aborted or abandoned? I think we're going on two decades now, which suggests to me that the Chinese leadership knew what was going on less than decade after the policy was implemented. They could have started tweaking it right then, and saved themselves the upcoming demographic crisis.

But they did not do anything when they should have, so I guess now all they can do is start promoting man on man sex and throwing pride parades.

I wonder if they knew about it from early on but decided to ignore it, knowing that it would ultimately further control the population. Mao did offer Henry Kissinger 10 million women, after all.

Also I note that the gender imbalance in China is worse in rural, poorer areas while in India the greatest imbalances are in richer areas (the places where people can afford the ultrasounds and abortions).

Also also, who was doubting this? I've been pointing this out as well for years.