South, West Gain Congressional Seats

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time

Southern and western states are poised to snatch more congressional seats from the rest of the country as Americans pursue open spaces and warmer climates.

The nation's migration west and south has slowed, according to new government population estimates. But states in the Northeast and Midwest are still projected to lose political clout in Washington after the 2010 census, when the nation apportions the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, based on population. (See 10 elections that changed America.)

Texas stands to be the biggest winner, picking up as many as four seats, while Ohio could be the big loser, giving up as many as two seats, according to projections by two firms that specialize in political apportionment. California is in danger of losing a seat for the first time since it became a state, though experts disagree on the likelihood of that happening.

The Census Bureau released state population estimates as of July 1, 2008. The data show annual changes through births, deaths and domestic and foreign migration.

Southern and western states are not growing as quickly as they were at the start of the decade, thanks to a housing crisis that is making it hard to buy and sell homes. "People have stopped moving," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "It's a big risk when you move to a new place. You need to know that moving and getting a new mortgage is going to pay off for you."

Utah was the fastest growing state, knocking Nevada from the top ranks. Utah's population climbed by 2.5 percent from July 2007 to July 2008. It was followed by Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Colorado. Nevada was ranked eighth, after 23 years of ranking in the top four each year.

Nevada was listed as the fastest growing state a year ago when the 2007 estimates were released. But adjustments to the 2007 numbers, released Monday, show that Utah was the fastest growing state in 2007 and Nevada was ranked fourth.

Only two states — Michigan and Rhode Island — lost population from 2007 to 2008, according to the new estimates.

Florida has attracted more people from outside its borders than any other state in the nation since the start of the decade. However, from 2007 to 2008, more people left Florida for other states than moved in — a net loss of nearly 9,300 people. The state still gained population from births and foreign immigration, but growth was slower than in previous years.

Nevertheless, Florida is expected to gain at least one seat in Congress, and perhaps two, following the 2010 census, said Kim Brace of Election Data Services, a Virginia-based firm that crunches political numbers.

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