Decision 1388: Meet The Candidates

[Derek Thunder]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms. ... ry_id=4989

[quote]Mahmoud Ahmadinejad


Credentials: Incumbent president of Iran

Power base: The president draws his support from conservative clerics, as well as the disaffected middle and working classes in rural Iran and the margins of major cities. During his presidency he traveled to almost every part of the country, always working to convince poor voters that he is one of them. His personal style of campaigning is rare in the Islamic Republic, and his rallies consistently draw massive crowds. He also enjoys some support from conservative students.

Domestic politics: On the economy, he believes in state control, focusing on direct assistance to small-scale cooperative businesses that are, in theory, supposed to earn quick returns and reduce unemployment. He pumped Iran’s oil profits into these businesses, and many believe that the result has been inflation and high unemployment (the president counters that his economic polices are based on a long-term vision that has yet to pay dividends).

Ahmadinejad has a self-perpetuating reputation for being tough on corruption. From the start of his presidency he believed in publicly naming corrupt officials and even did so in a recent televised debate, making allegations against the sons of former president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani and a deputy of former President Mohammed Khatami.

The president calls himself a true believer in the principles and values of the Islamic revolution and an ally of the poor. On women's rights, he argues that Iranian women have improved their position during his tenure as president. But his opponents accuse him of increasing constraints by sending the religious police onto the streets to enforce the wearing of headscarves and decreasing the number of women in government jobs.

Foreign policy: Ahmadinejad’s foreign policy has been consistently radical at both the regional and global levels; but, if you listen to him, this radicalism has restored Iran’s stature in the eyes of the world to a level befitting its actual power and influence. Under Ahmadinejad’s tenure, Iran successfully launched an independent uranium enrichment process, resisted economic sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council, and finally forced the United States to propose direct talks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. He recently stressed that Iran will not negotiate with the United States on suspending enrichment, but that it would be willing to discuss fighting terrorism and resolving regional crises together.

Ahmadinejad has also courted international controversy through his repeated public questioning of the history of the Holocaust. He justifies this policy as a calculated ploy to highlight the human rights failings of Western countries, who for years have criticized Iran’s human rights practices.


Mir Hossein Mousavi


Credentials: An architect by training, he was one of Ayatollah Khomeini’s favorite acolytes during the Iranian revolution and served as foreign minister and then prime minister during the Iran-Iraq war.


Power base: Returning to active politics after 20 years, Mousavi argues that the country is straying from the 1979 revolution’s original principles of unity and equality. He says that Ahmadinejad’s rule has divided Iranian society along class and cultural lines. Moderate clerics support him and he has followers among intellectuals, academics, students (especially women), artists, and the urban middle and upper classes. Because of his revolutionary background, many working-class people trust him to uphold Islamic principles.

Domestic politics: Although his opponents focus on earlier support for state planning and a centralized economic agenda, in his presidential campaign Mousavi has stressed that he will follow market-friendly policies and privatization. He has promised to reduce the role of the government in cultural and social activities. He promises to ease restrictions on the press and restrict the authority of the religious police to accost citizens on the street.

Mousavi, like both of the other opposition candidates, vows to promote women’s rights. By giving a central role to women’s rights campaigners like his wife Zahra Rahnavard (who has been called Iran’s Michelle Obama for her popularity, intellect, and campaign skills), and Faezeh Hashemi (former MP and daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani) in his campaign, Mousavi has attracted female voters.

Foreign policy: Mousavi’s foreign policy would likely be a return to that of former President Mohammed Khatami’s. In his televised debate, he promised to avoid confrontational gestures (like casting doubt on the Holocaust) and pipe dreams (such as becoming a global power) and focus on improving relations with Iran’s region as well as global superpowers.

On the nuclear issue, he supports Iran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful uses and says he would be willing to negotiate with the international community to avoid the weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program. He is not against rapprochement with the United States but maintains that the Americans must make the first move.


Mehdi Karroubi


Credentials: Cleric and former speaker of the parliament

Power base: Positioning himself as a kind of Iranian Obama, self-described reformer Karroubi has made “changeâ€

[frigidmagi]

Decision 1388?

[LadyTevar]

That's the Islamic Calendar, FM.

[The Minx]

Early results are not promising:

Link

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was leading in early results from Iran's presidential election Friday, the election chief said.

With almost 20 percent of ballots counted, Election Commission Chief Kamran Daneshjoo said Ahmadinejad was leading with 69 percent of the vote.

Daneshjoo said Ahmadinejad's chief rival, reformist candidate Mir Hossain Moussavi, had 28 percent.

Both candidates were claiming victory.

Moussavi's campaign caught fire in recent days, triggering massive street rallies in Tehran. It was thought heavy voter turnout Friday could help him.

Voters crowded the steps of one polling place in Tehran, some waiting more than three hours underneath the hot sun to cast their ballots. Some were lining up before the polls opened at 8 a.m.

Moussavi's main rival is Ahmadinejad, blamed by many Iranians for the nation's four-year economic turmoil and known in the West for his vehement rhetoric regarding Iran's nuclear program and condemnation of Israel.

Polls were to stay open for 10 hours, but officials decided in order to accommodate the massive number of voters, polls would stay open until everyone in line got a chance to vote.

Kamran Daneshjoo, head of the election's office, called the turnout unprecedented.

Moussavi is the main challenger among the three candidates vying to replace Ahmadinejad. The others are former parliament speaker and reformist Mehdi Karrubi and hard-liner Mohsen Rezaie, the former head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

Ahmadinejad still has staunch support in Iran's rural areas. If he loses, it would be the first time a sitting Iranian president has not won re-election to a second term.

Text messaging was not working in Iran on Friday, something that could hurt Moussavi, who has used technology to inform his supporters.

If no single candidate reaches a simple majority -- 50 plus one percent -- a runoff election will be held on Friday, June 19.

Fawaz Gerges, an academic and author who studies the region, said Friday's vote is really "a referendum on Ahmadinejad," who has been in office since 2005.

"The unemployment rate is 30 percent ... the largest in the Third World, inflation is double digits in Iran," Gerges told CNN's "American Morning."

"We focus in the United States a great deal on his inflammatory rhetoric on the Holocaust, on nuclear weapons. We tend to forget that Ahmadinejad has basically done a great deal of damage to the Iranian economy, on social policy."

Moussavi's campaign has energized key segments of Iranian voters -- particularly women. But Gerges also noted that "Iranians have surprised us many times."

As the campaign season ended Thursday, raucous, lively political rallies filled the streets of Tehran.

On Wednesday, tens of thousands of Iranians took part in the final rallies. As far as the eye could see, people walked for hours from east of the city to the west, converging on Freedom Square, which became the symbol of the Islamic revolution that swept this country back in 1979.

Most of the rallies were for Moussavi, whose supporters wore the candidate's trademark color green.

Moussavi's campaign has also energized Iran's young people, many of whom did not take part in the 2005 election.

Yasmin, a 21-year-old university student, said she cast her ballot on Friday for Moussavi.

"I've never even been interested in the politics of my country, until today. It was my first time voting, and I am so excited about it," she said. "We are all yearning for change, and I believe Moussavi will bring much more freedom to Iran and our lives. That is why I cast my ballot for him. There is so much anticipation in the air."

Moussavi's supporters hope that he follows in the footsteps of Mohammed Khatami, a reformist candidate who overwhelmingly won the presidency in 1997, raising hopes that the reformist movement would bring religious and democratic freedoms to the Islamic republic.

But the real power in Iran rests in the hands of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

By the time Khatami left office in 2005, he was unable to make major changes because of the opposition of hard-liners in Iran's clerical establishment.

"The elected president is not the commander-in-chief, he does not make decisions of war and peace," Gerges said. "The major decision maker is the unelected Supreme Leader, that is Ali Khamenei, along with a National Security Council."

But Gerges said "the style of the president" and his posture have a great deal of influence on Iran's relations with other countries, particularly the United States.

No matter who wins Friday's vote, analysts say it is unlikely any of the candidates would change Iran's position on its nuclear program, which the Islamic republic insists is for civilian purposes but the United States and other Western powers believe may be a cover for a weapons program.

Iranian-American analyst and scholar Reza Aslan said that although Moussavi is "a little bit more of a moderate when it comes to the nuclear issue ... all four candidates agree with Iran's right to develop nuclear."

Nevertheless, Aslan said all four candidates also "recognize it's time to open up to America and to the international community because there's no other option with regard to the economy."

"But I think with Moussavi you have someone that I think would be more palatable for a Barack Obama to sit down next to," he told CNN's "American Morning."

The U.S. president has indicated his willingness to open dialogue with Iran, something his predecessor was unwilling to do.

But talks with the incumbent Iranian president are more likely to trigger criticism because of Ahmadinejad's repeated denial of the Holocaust and his comments about wiping Israel off the map.

Aslan predicted that Moussavi will emerge victorious after Friday's vote because of his ability to energize key segments of Iran's population.

"He's finally got the young people in Iran to care about politics again," Aslan said. "They really dropped out four years ago and they're back in full force now."

[The Minx]

The results are in, and the electoral commission claims that Ahmadinejad got over 60% of the votes. A fair number of people are not happy about this:

Link

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- As street protests and voter skepticism rose over Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election victory, the incumbent leader hailed the vote, saying it was a "great ordeal" but one that pointed "the way to the future."

"The people of Iran inspired hope for all nations and created a source of pride in the nation and disappointed all the ill wishers," Ahmadinejad said in a nationwide TV address Saturday night. "This election was held at a juncture of history."

The government said on Saturday that Ahmadinejad won Friday's presidential election with 62.63 percent of the vote and Mir Hossein Moussavi received 33.75 percent of the vote.

But while he extolled the result and the huge turnout, Moussavi and supporters in the Tehran streets are crying foul as street clashes have erupted in the aftermath of the polls. Reaction emerged across the world, as countries such as the United States and Canada voiced concern over claims of voter irregularities.

The ongoing street protests have been viewed as remarkable in a country where anti-government sentiment is not looked upon kindly by those in power. In the aftermath of the vote, street protesters and riot police engaged in running battles, with stones thrown, garbage cans set on fire and people shouting "death to the dictatorship."

People leaned out of windows and balconies to watch the throngs of protesters march, many of whom were Moussavi supporters and conducted largely noisy but peaceful demonstrations.

Later in the evening, an agitated and angry crowd emerged in Tehran's Moseni Square, with people breaking into shops, starting fires and tearing down signs. Two sides of people faced off against each other in the square, throwing rocks and bottles and shouting angrily.

Observers believe the two sides could be supporters of Ahmadinejad on the one, and Moussavi on the other.

Before the vote count ended, Moussavi issued a sharply worded letter urging the counting to stop because of "blatant violations" and lashed out at what he indicated was an unfair process.

Moussavi said the results from "untrustworthy monitors" reflects "the weakening of the pillars that constitute the sacred system" of Iran and "the rule of authoritarianism and tyranny." Independent vote monitors were banned from polling places.

"The results announced for the 10th presidential elections are astonishing. People who stood in long lines and knew well who they voted for were utterly surprised by the magicians working at the television and radio broadcasting," Moussavi said in his statement.

Iran, he said, "belongs to the people and not cheaters."

But Ahmadinejad said "it was clear what a majority people wanted."

"The elections in Iran are really important. Election means consensus of all people's resolve and their crystallization of their demands and their wants, and it's a leap toward high peaks of aspiration and progress. Elections in Iran are totally popular-based move that belongs to the people with a look at the future, aimed at constructing the future."

He indicated progress through consensus, saying economic and infrastructure reforms can be accomplished in Iran through a collective process.

"All of us can join forces," he said.

Analysts expected Moussavi, widely regarded as a reformist, to do well.

After a presidential debate between Moussavi and Ahmadinejad riveted the nation, Moussavi's campaign caught fire in recent days, triggering massive street rallies in Tehran.

What officials have called an unprecedented voter turnout at the polls Friday had been expected to boost Moussavi's chances of winning the presidency. But Ahmadinejad -- despite being blamed for Iran's economic turmoil over the past four years -- maintains staunch support in rural areas. Video Watch as Ahmadinejad is declared the winner »

The voter turnout surpassed 80 percent, at least two officials said on Saturday.

Iran's Interior Minister Seyed Sadeq Mahsouli said 85 percent of the country's 46 million eligible voters had gone to the polls Friday. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the "epic" event.

"The 12 June election was an artistic expression of the nation, which created a new advancement in the history of elections in the country," Khamenei said. "The over 80 percent participation of the people and the 24 million votes cast for the president-elect is a real celebration which with the power of almighty God can guarantee the development, progress, national security, and the joy and excitement of the nation."

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the level of participation of Iranians who reside abroad increased 300 percent in the election, Iranian media said.

Moussavi was the main challenger among three candidates who had been vying to replace Ahmadinejad.

The others were hard-liner Mohsen Rezaie, the former head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards and former parliament speaker and reformist Mehdi Karrubi, who called the declared results of the elections are a "joke" and "astonishing."

Technology has been a key tactic in politically mobilizing young people in Iran, but text messaging has not been working in Iran over recent days. However, Iranian protesters still arrived en masse at meeting places around Tehran on Saturday.

Khamenei indicated that Iranians should take a deep breath in the aftermath of the vote.

"The Saturday after the election should always be a day of affection and patience," he said.

"Both the supporters of the elected candidate and the supporters of other respectable candidates should refrain from making any provocative and doubtful behavior. The respectable president-elect is the president of all the people of Iran and everybody, including yesterday's rivals, should protect and help him."

Only a week ago, people were predicting that there would have to be a run-off, and Moussavi's campaign had been building up steam since then. It's possible that he dropped the ball, but I'm pretty skeptical about that.

[LadyTevar]

What's the chances of Vote Fraud?

[SirNitram]

What's the chances of Vote Fraud?

In a four way election, the unpopular incumbunt who lost even his military backers wins by 30% margins.

Does that sound credible?

It didn't to the Ayatollahs, who have called for invalidation of the election and a new one. In the meantime, massive riots, and all communication in and out of the capital has stopped.

[The Minx]

It didn't to the Ayatollahs, who have called for invalidation of the election and a new one. In the meantime, massive riots, and all communication in and out of the capital has stopped.

They're simply worried that people will start mistrusting their entire system of the "Islamic Republic".

Here's more, I haven't been able to find it on the large news feeds:


Link

Saturday, June 13, 2009
Breaking: All Telephone Cut Off Teheran, Mousavi Arrested: Rafsanjani Resigns

By GottaLaff

Via DKos:

Link Telephone communication between Tehran and the rest of Iran has been completely disconnected. This corresponds with the beginnings of the arrests of the opposition. It is suspected that this is being orchestrated by the son of Mojtaba Khamenei son of The Supreme Leader, Ali.

[...]

Pyknet: Mousavi has been place under house arrest. He was arrested on his way to Khamenei's house. All communication has been shut off. Khamenei has issued a statement claiming that HE that he is leading this coup to SAVE the Islamic Government (Nezam)

Sianat az ara (Protectors of Votes) Iran' Election Commission, have called the result fraud and are calling for new election. [...]

peiknet.com is reporting;
Translation -

Rafsanjani has resigned all duties in protest to Supreme Leader Khamenei's endorsement of Ahmadinejad as winner of yesterday's election.

Much more at Kos.

[frigidmagi]

They're simply worried that people will start mistrusting their entire system of the "Islamic Republic".

I think it's to fucking late for that now.

Police clash with supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi in Tehran

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has defended his "completely free" re-election as Iran's president, amid violent clashes on the streets over claims of election fraud.

Mr Ahmadinejad condemned the outside world for "psychological warfare" against Iranians during the election.

Thousands have protested against the result, burning barricades on the streets of Tehran and clashing with police, who responded with tear gas.

Reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi urged his supporters to avoid violence.

'Down with the dictator'

Speaking on national television, Mr Ahmadinejad praised the Iranian people for choosing to "look toward the future" rather than returning to the past.

President Ahmadinejad addresses the nation

"This is a great victory at a time and condition when the whole material, political and propaganda facilities outside of Iran and sometimes... inside Iran, were total mobilised against our people," he said.

He blamed "foreign media" for instigating a "full-fledged fight against our people".

"Nearly 40 million people took part in a totally free election," he said.

However, the official result, which gave Mr Ahmadinejad a resounding victory - 63% of the vote against 34% for Mr Mousavi - brought the worst violence seen in Tehran for a decade, correspondents said.

The BBC's John Simpson saw secret policemen being attacked and chased away by protesters, which he says is extremely rare.

Some of the protesters in Tehran wore Mr Mousavi's campaign colour of green and chanted "Down with the dictator", news agencies report.

Four police motorbikes were set on fire near the interior ministry, where votes had been counted, our correspondent says.

Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli warned that any demonstrations needed official permission, and none had been given.

One opposition newspaper has been closed down and BBC websites also appear to have been blocked by the Iranian authorities. The AP news agency reports that mobile phone services have been blocked in Tehran.

Ayatollah's call

Mr Mousavi urged calm in his website statement.

"The violations in the election are very serious and you are right to be deeply hurt," he said.

A crowd of about 3,000 attacked the police, some of whom were on motorbikes, which they set on fire.

The sky was thick with black smoke. Police attacked the crowd with sticks and maybe teargas.

I didn't expect to see people turning on the secret police. We were filming when we were surrounded by angry secret policemen. The crowd turned on them and chased them off.

I suspect we are not looking at a revolution but there is serious anger.

"But I firmly call on you not to subject any individual or groups to hurt."

Mr Mousavi earlier said the election was a "charade".

"I personally strongly protest the many obvious violations and I'm warning I will not surrender to this dangerous charade.

"The result of such performance by some officials will jeopardise the pillars of the Islamic Republic and will establish tyranny."

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate power, urged all Iranians "including yesterday's competitors" to support the re-elected president.

He described the count as a "real celebration", praised the high turnout of 85% and called for calm. "Enemies may want to spoil the sweetness of this event... with some kind of ill-intentioned provocations," the ayatollah said.

Mr Mousavi had been hoping to prevent Mr Ahmadinejad winning more than 50% of the vote, in order to force a run-off election.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says the result has been greeted with surprise and with deep scepticism by many Iranians.

The figures, if they are to be believed, show Mr Ahmadinejad winning strongly even in the heartland of Mr Mousavi.

Our correspondent says Mr Ahmadinejad will feel emboldened in his global vision that foresees the death of capitalism, while at home, many Iranians will fear a clamp down on society and cultural life.

Surge of interest

There had been a surge of interest in Iran's presidential election, with unprecedented live television debates between the candidates and rallies attended by thousands.


IRANIAN ELECTION
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 62.6%
Mir Hossein Mousavi: 33.8%
Mohsen Rezai: 1.7%
Mehdi Karroubi 0.9%
Turnout: 85%
Source: Interior ministry

In pictures: Election clashes
Iran poll result: Your comments
Send us your comments

There were long queues at polling stations on Friday, with turnout reaching 85%.

Four candidates contested the election, with Mohsen Razai and Mehdi Karroubi only registering about 1% of the vote each.

Iran is ruled under a system known as Velayat-e Faqih, or "Rule by the Supreme Jurist", who is currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It was adopted by an overwhelming majority in 1979 following the Islamic revolution which overthrew the autocratic Western-backed Shah.

But the constitution also stipulates that the people are the source of power and the country holds phased presidential and parliamentary elections every four years.

All candidates are vetted by the powerful conservative-controlled Guardian Council, which also has the power to veto legislation it deems inconsistent with revolutionary principles.

There's a video attached to the link, I strongly advise everyone to watch it.

Bluntly this isn't going to lead to a revolution or anything like that in the short term. The folks rioting don't have the firepower and as the police are showing the authorities are more then willing to resort to violence. What it does mean is any trust that this generation had in Iranian government or it's systems is likely flushed down the drain.

[Charon]

From my understanding this generation already had little to no trust in the Iranian government. I will agree that this isn't going to be the spark that leads to (another) revolution. But if Ahmadinejad doesn't want to get himself executed by his own people he should consider stepping down the bullshit.

[frigidmagi]

But if Ahmadinejad doesn't want to get himself executed by his own people he should consider stepping down the bullshit.

By what bloody army? The Revolutionary Guard, whose practically promised to murder reformists in the street if they can only get the blessing? Bands of students with rocks and sticks for weapons? The Ayatollah himself has blessed this and that's who the army is loyal to. Ahmadinejad is perfectly safe for the foreseeable future. The Iranian Army will not turn.

[frigidmagi]

Youtube

...

That's alot of people.

[Cynical Cat]

The last time the Iranian military was asked to intervene in Iran's internal politics and put down demonstrators they said "no". Now that leaves plenty of secret police and foreign paramilitaries who will crack heads and shoot people, but it isn't the PLA who will run tanks in and play Tiannemen Square II: The Iranian Election.

[frigidmagi]

It doesn't have to. Like I said, it won't turn. If it doesn't turn, the current mullahs and etc stay in power. That simple.

In Fact...

This account by Iranian film director and Mousavi spokesman Mohsen Makhbalbaf makes a great deal of sense:

"According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, in the early hours after voting had ended, the Interior Ministry had called Mr. Mousavi’s campaign headquarters to inform them that Mr. Mousavi would be the winner and, therefore, Mr. Mousavi must prepare a victory statement. Mr. Mousavi was, however, asked by the Ministry not to boast too much, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad’s supporters. Many of the president’s supporters are among the ranks of the Basij militia, and thus armed.

"According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was also informed of the developments. He also recommended a 'good management' of the victory statement, meaning not boasting greatly about the victory, because that would be in Iran’s national interests and stability.

"At the same time, the reformist newspapers were also informed that they can prepare their Saturday edition to declare Mr. Mousavi the winner, but were not allowed to use the word pirouzi (victory) in their articles, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad’s supporters. One reformist newspaper prepared its front page with the title, 'People took back the flag of their country [from Mr. Ahmadinejad].'

"But, just a few hours later, a center that had been set up by Mr. Mousavi in Gheytarieh (in northern Tehran) for monitoring the election and vote counting, was attacked by armed security agents. They ransacked the center, destroyed computers, and attacked the staff. Supporters of Mr. Mousavi intervened and arrested 8 security agents. The police was called to take them to prison, but the police released the attackers.

"According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the central headquaters of Mr. Mousavi’s campaign was also surrounded by security forces, as was the Interior Ministry building. Then, new data began to be released by the Ministry, indicating that Mr. Ahmadinejad had won the elections decisively."

A coup that originated with the military rather than the clerical or lay political leaders resolves what I saw the the main flaw with Juan Cole's reconstruction. It also dovetails well with Interior Ministry employees' warnings that Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who is influential in the military, issued a fatwa authorizing manipulation of the elections.

A coup led by the military is also easier to explain than one ordered by Ayatollah Khamene'i. I had been thinking about the implications of a Mousavi victory, and concluded that, given the continuing conservative dominance of Parliament, the most important changes for Iranians would be a different economic policy and the replacement of someone hostile to the old revolutionary establishment embodied by the likes of Rafsanjani with someone who was actually a part of it. With that in mind, let's go to Walter Posch's election backgrounder:

"On the other hand, if Ahmadinjed wins, the relatively broad scope of political participation for various ideological and political trends will be dramatically reduced, as the reformists will be pushed aside and purged. This in turn will lead to an ideological monopoly for Mesbah-Yazdi and the Haqqaniye network, where a new generation of political clerics is trained. This also means a final legitimization of the Revolutionary Guards’ control over the economy, complementing the tax-free cash cows of the 'pious' foundations and further suffocating free enterprise. Finally, it would mean the strengthened
indirect and direct control of the Revolutionary Guards over the executive branch. Former IRGC members already control most of the Parliament, are present in the government, and, of course, in the Higher National Security Council (HNSC)."

In other words, the often anti-democratic and militarily inclined forces which have been rising in Iran were threatened by the more traditional establishment, and acted to preserve their interests. We already saw, starting in 2005, how this movement had pushed together reformists and centrist pragmatists, resulting in Mousavi's alliance with the likes of Rafsanjani and Khatami's conservative 1997 opponent Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri. If so, this was not a coup perpetrated by the clerical establishment, but by a rising hard-line counter-establishment that did not want a repeat of the 2006 elections for the Assembly of Experts.

UPDATE: Khamene'i's role in this affair is emerging as a key issue within analysis. Above, I followed Makhbalbaf's account, in which the Leader initially accepted the results. Gary Sick, however, credibly suggests that the Mousavi camp was lied to so as to make them complacent.

UPDATE: Just a quick clarification: "Military" in this case refers to the IRGC and basij militias.

I gotta say if they wanted Mousavi complacent, they shouldn't have told him he won and then jerked it out of his teeth. That's more like to get a man excited then to make him complacent.

[frigidmagi]

Double Posting again. I know, I'm an asshole.

Ayatollahs Protest Election Fraud

Mir Hossein Mousavi’s, the main reformist rival to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, letter to the important ayatollahs in the holy city of Qom, asking them to protest the fraud and declare it against Islam, has sparked protests by the ayatollahs and clerics as well.

The Association of Combatant Clerics, which consists of moderate and leftist clerics and includes such important figures as former president Mohammad Khatami, Ayatollah Mohammad Mousavi Khoiniha, and Grand Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili, issued a strongly-worded statement, calling the results of the election invalid.

Grand Ayatollah Saafi Golpaygaani, an important cleric with a large number of followers, warned about the election results and the importance that elections in Iran retain their integrity.

Grand Ayatollah Yousef Saanei, a progressive cleric and a confidante of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, has declared that Mr. Ahmadinejad is not the legitimate president and cooperation with him, as well as working for him, are haraam (against Islam and a great sin). He has also declared that any changes in the votes by unlawful means are also haraam. Several credible reports indicate that he has traveled to Tehran in order to participate in nationwide protests scheduled for Monday (June 18). It is said that he has planned a sit-in in some public place, in order to further protest election fraud. His website has been blocked.

Credible reports also indicate that security forces have surrounded the offices and homes of several other important ayatollahs who are believed to want to protest election fraud. Their websites cannot be accessed, and all communications with them have been cut off.

The nation is waiting to hear the views of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the most important ayatollah living in Iran and the strongest clerical critic of the conservatives. He has been asked to issue a clear statement, explaining his views about the election fraud.

Mr. Khatami, who campaigned strongly for Mr. Mousavi, is also under house arrest.

Copyright © 2009 Tehran Bureau

God have mercy this might boil over after all.

[Derek Thunder]

I'm rather torn on the results myself.

On the one hand, the appearance of popular support doesn't guarantee victory; Obama had huge rallies in urban centers in states such as Pennsylvania and Texas, yet still lost to Mrs. Clinton in large margins. Similarly, Mousavi was able to rally huge crowds in Tehran during the final weeks of the campaign, but that has never been Ahmadinajad's base of support. It's conceivable that Mousavi simply couldn't overcome a rural population unconcerned with civil liberties and foreign policy, instead being concerned chiefly with core economic issues.

On the other hand, the behavior of the government during and after the election seems very suspicious, and the actual results seem very hard to believe, including Mousavi losing his own hometown, and the huge divergence between pre-election polls and the actual results. Maybe it just speaks to the difficulty of polling a third-world country, but polls overstated support for minor candidates by an order of magnitude.

I suppose the question now is what the US should do, if anything.

[frigidmagi]

Bluntly, nothing of any weight. If we go in slugging we make things worse and make Ahjadamad there look right. Frankly we got to much on our plate for picking fights right now as it is.

The most we can do at the moment is give moral support to the people of Iran and stress that if the vote was rigged (and I believe it was, what's coming out of Iran shows all the signs) that it was wrong to do so and we will not support a vote rigging government. Not that the current Iranian government has or wants our support anyways.

[frigidmagi]

Police forces in Iran have been out in force, some of the images I'm linking to may be disturbing for some of you.


Isafhan

Tehran

Mass detaining have been reported, a Canadian freelancer reports his experience.

globeandmail

[quote]Riot police had driven off anti-government demonstrators and the sting of tear gas in the air was fading Sunday when the heavy-set man in a camouflage uniform grabbed me, shouting in Farsi, and pushed me into a throng of riot police. They shouted while I waved my hand and said “Canadianâ€

[Charon]

But if Ahmadinejad doesn't want to get himself executed by his own people he should consider stepping down the bullshit.

By what bloody army? The Revolutionary Guard, whose practically promised to murder reformists in the street if they can only get the blessing? Bands of students with rocks and sticks for weapons? The Ayatollah himself has blessed this and that's who the army is loyal to. Ahmadinejad is perfectly safe for the foreseeable future. The Iranian Army will not turn.

You'll note even I said that this isn't going to boil over this time. But after a stunt like this he's going to want to stop pulling this shit or the people and army are going to get discontent enough to take him down and execute him. There are still plenty of people alive, Ahmadineejad among them most likely, who remember what they did to the last Iranian leader that wasn't liked.

*looks at some of the pictures you've posted after this and further shit that has been going down*

Ok, this might boil over. But it's too soon to tell. I'm still leaning towards the fact that this isn't gonna be quite enough. I do agree that the worst thing the US could do right now is try to get directly involved.

[General Havoc]

It's not going to boil over, I don't think. And I'm certainly not gonna sit here on the other side of the world and claim that the protesters should or shouldn't go ahead with their rallies given everything. If they do choose to go ahead however, then I wish them all the luck in the world, because the security forces are out for blood, and are gonna get it.

But Amedinajad has too much support from the people with the guns. I think this is gonna stand after a couple more days of discontent. Meaning that Iran will continue to be angry and sabre-rattling, and that the Iranian economy will continue to deteriorate, and that emigration from Iran will increase apace.

Every time someplace falls apart somewhere in the world (or at least something happens to cause a lot of emigration), restaurants from that location begin to open in San Francisco (my home town). My guess is that I'm gonna get the chance to try some new Iranian restaurants before too long.

[B4UTRUST]

If it's anything like Iraqi cuisine, I'll pass.

[The Minx]

Update. The powers that be have backed down just a little bit:

Link

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian authorities Tuesday agreed to recount disputed presidential votes as the country faced intensifying unrest in the wake of a claimed victory by incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that opponents say was the result of a rigged ballot.

Ahmadinejad's main opponent, conservative reformist Mir Hossein Moussavi, Tuesday rejected the vote recount, calling instead for a fresh election, an official close to the opposition leader's camp told CNN.

The stalemate means that rival demonstrations planned for Tuesday evening by Moussavi's supporters and backers of Ahmadinejad will likely go on -- raising the specter of more violence as the country entered a fourth day of unrest.

Iran's Guardian Council -- which is made up of top clerics and judges -- said Tuesday it will recount votes that the opposition questioned in Friday's race.

A spokesman for the council told the official Islamic Republic News Agency that council members met with the three opposition candidates -- Moussavi, Mehdi Karrubi and Mohsen Rezaie -- and asked them to specify the areas where they wanted a recount.

But Moussavi, whose supporters have alleged ballot fraud, wants Iran to hold fresh elections, the official close to his camp said.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a recount would provide another opportunity for the government to manipulate the results.

He said the council ordered the printing of 53 million ballots for the elections, but only 39 million were used. Fourteen million ballots were missing.

The Guardian Council's surprise announcement follows Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's apparent u-turn from an earlier endorsement of an Ahmadinejad victory.

Ahmadinejad won Friday's race, surprising many experts who had expected Moussavi to put up a much stronger fight.

Moussavi, a former prime minister looked on as a reformist, enjoys tremendous support among the youth, who make up almost 60 percent of Iran's population of 70 million.

He tapped into their dissatisfaction with the faltering economy under Ahmadinejad and with an unemployment rate that tops 30 percent by some accounts.

But Kaveh Afrasiabi, a political scientist who supports Ahmadinejad, said the incumbent's widespread support in rural areas and small towns was the reason for his win with more than 62 percent of the vote.

Moussavi contested the results. His supporters have taken to the streets every day, often clashing with police and Ahmadinejad's backers. Video Watch report on latest violence in Iran »

Seven people were killed on Monday night in the capital, Tehran, after they allegedly attacked a military post near Azadi -- or Freedom -- Square, government-funded Press TV said.

The site was the same one where Moussavi had earlier in the day appealed to his supporters -- a crowd of at least 10,000.

Moussavi's presence was his first public appearance since the election. There, he called on authorities to stop attacks on his supporters and urged his followers to continue demonstrating peacefully.

"You are not breaking glass," he said. "You are breaking tyranny."

Though the rally was largely peaceful, one person was reportedly fatally shot when it ended.

"I could hear gunshots coming from the right-hand of the square," said Rana, a 25-year-old whom CNN is not identifying for safety reasons. "The people were terrified, because the gunshots would not stop."

CNN has not been able to independently verify the reports of casualties.

The official with the Moussavi camp confirmed the death of eight supporters, saying they were killed in clashes with Ahmadinejad supporters following the rally.

Also Tuesday, Mohammad Ali Abtahi -- a former vice president who backed presidential candidate Karrubi -- was arrested, his Web site said.

"We are waiting for his freedom and will update the site," a short post said.

By early afternoon Tuesday, the Moussavi and Ahmadinejad camps were juggling times for their respective rallies to minimize confrontations. Each had picked Vali Asr Square in central Tehran for their gatherings, with Moussavi asking supporters to not fall into the "trap" of street fights.

Since election day, several violent incidents have been blamed on Ahmadinejad backers.

On Sunday, men on motorcycles combed streets and alleys for protesters -- chasing and beating them with clubs, metal batons and baseball bats.

Later that night, a family that lives in a high-rise apartment near Moussavi's election headquarters in Tehran reported that militiamen had attacked their building.

Photos show damage to the building and nearby vehicles. A relative of one of the residents, who did not want to be named, told CNN that the attack happened after people inside the building had shouted "dictator!" and "Allahu Akbar," or "God is Great," from the windows.

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad left for Russia on Tuesday to meet with President Dmitry Medvedev.

There, he was welcomed as the "newly re-elected president of Iran," with Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov telling reporters, "the issue of elections in Iran is an internal affair of the Iranian people."

Reaction from other world leaders to the disputed election has been, for the most part, guarded.

In Washington, U.S. President Barack Obama told reporters Monday that he was "deeply troubled" by the violent protests, but said it was up to Iranians to choose their leaders.

A recount, now? I'm skeptical. It's been a few days already, and given the scale of the cheating and the mistrust, the recount will not accomplish much. They really should hold another vote.

[frigidmagi]

Grand Ayatollah Husayn (Hossein) 'Ali Montazeri has issued a statement in favor of the protesters. I don't know much about him, but what I do know is he's considered a man of principal and a scholar. Sorta the priest that the Pope can't buy kinda guy. This stands because it seems in the past he's called out the Supreme Leader for straying. Which in Iran takes some balls I would say.



[quote]In the name of God

People of Iran

These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.

Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.

But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.

Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :

1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.

2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.

3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.

4- I ask the police and army personals not to “sell their religionâ€

[frigidmagi]

Iran protester killed after anti-government rally

ABC

There have been violent clashes on the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran, after a massive opposition rally in the city.

One protester was shot dead and several others were injured when the crowd attacked a compound used by a religious militia linked to the country's powerful Revolutionary Guard.

The violence comes after a largely peaceful rally in the city, attended by hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters demanding the country's presidential election be overturned.

The rally was addressed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's defeated rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who claims the presidential vote was rigged.

It is not known if the protester's death was the catalyst for the violence.

The rally itself was a remarkable event for Tehran, where public gatherings not approved by the government are banned.

The country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has promised a review of the election result.

Western nations, including the United States, have expressed their doubts about the vote.

Overnight United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon voiced his concern about the election result.

"When there is an election, the genuine will of the people should be reflected and respected in the most transparent and fair and objective manner," he said.

Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama says he is "deeply troubled" by the post-election violence in Iran.

"The democratic process, free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent - all those are universal values and need to be respected," he said.

[Charon]

And now we wait to see if the shit hits the fan...