The Ukraine

[Lys]

I will let Thucydides speak for me on the matter of right and wrong in international relations:

Athenian: "For ourselves, we shall not trouble you with specious pretenses—either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede, or are now attacking you because of wrong that you have done us—and make a long speech which would not be believed; and in return we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you did not join the Spartans, although their colonists, or that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible, holding in view the real sentiments of us both; since you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."

Melians: "You may be sure that we are as well aware as you of the difficulty of contending against your power and fortune, unless the terms be equal. But we trust that the gods may grant us fortune as good as yours, since we are just men fighting against unjust, and that what we want in power will be made up by the alliance of the Lacedaemonians, who are bound, if only for very shame, to come to the aid of their kindred. Our confidence, therefore, after all is not so utterly irrational."

Athenian: "Of the gods we believe, and of men we know, that by a necessary law of their nature they rule wherever they can. And it is not as if we were the first to make this law, or to act upon it when made: we found it existing before us, and shall leave it to exist forever after us; all we do is to make use of it, knowing that you and everybody else, having the same power as we have, would do the same as we do."

That is not to say that I approve of Putin's moves. My personal sympathies lie firmly with Russia and the Russian people, and I am on occasion impressed by Putin's ruthlessness and political acumen, his actions have been ham handed and inefficient of late. I firmly believe his goals could have been accomplished through means that would have seem more legitimate, and allowed him to conserve political capital and international credibility for other ends. Ukraine and Russia may not be equals in power, but Russia cannot forget that the sympathies of the world are not with her, and she lacks the strength to stand alone against everyone else. It is necessary to play and tread lightly, exerting as little force as possible, while keeping up all the false pretences that make up modern international discourse. No doubt acting in this blunt fashion works, but the are associated opportunity costs that could have been avoided, and they are by no means trivial.

[General Havoc]

An interesting situation everyone's got over there. I honestly am beginning to question if Putin is capable of retaining control over the ultra-nationalist elements of his own government at this point, as the situation appears to be spiraling beyond the level which he seems to be aiming at.

It would be a terrible mistake for Russia to go ahead and annex the Crimea, in the short, medium, and long terms. And yet at the moment I think they're sitting there trying to figure out just what else they can do at this point, having had their other initiatives explode in their faces, in some cases deservedly.

[Lys]

The ideal for Russia would be for Crimea to declare either independence of some high degree of autonomy through a referendum perceived as more or less legitimate. That would in turn allow Russia to exert influence and control over the province without out and out annexing it. Events have developed in a way that it is likely impossible for that ideal to be attained.

[frigidmagi]

OSCE says Crimea Referendum is illegal and they will not montior.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) says Crimea's planned March 16 referendum on joining Russia is illegal in its current form.

Europe's security and democracy watchdog also says that the organization will not send a mission to observe the poll.

Swiss Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter, whose country is the current chair of the Vienna-based OSCE, made the announcements in a statement appearing on the organization's website on March 11.

Russia's RIA news agency said March 10 that Ukraine's Crimea region had invited the OSCE to send a mission to observe the March 16 plebiscite. It said the invitation had been issued by the region's pro-Russian parliament.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke on the Ukraine crisis, but their telephone conversation did not yield results.

Ukraine Unspun: Uncovering The Truth

The call came after the United States over the weekend sent Russia a set of questions which Washington says were aimed to determine what diplomatic steps Moscow was willing to take to resolve the crisis diplomatically.

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Russia's responses made clear its position had not changed.

"[U.S. State] Secretary [John] Kerry, during [his] call [with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov] this morning, made clear that any further escalatory steps will make the window for diplomacy more difficult," Psaki said.

"He also reiterated his willingness to continue to engage with Foreign Minister Lavrov, including this week, but that the environment has to be right and the goal must be to protect the immunity and sovereignty of Ukraine and we didn't see that, obviously, in the responses that we received back."

She said Kerry told Lavrov it is unacceptable for Russian forces to continue to take matters into their own hands in Ukraine.

In Moscow, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov had told Kerry that any solution to Ukraine's crisis must consider the interests of all Ukrainians and also respect "the rights of residents of Crimea to determine their future."

Both sides said their top diplomats were ready to continue talks.

Preparing For Referendum

The Foreign Ministry separately said that a declaration of independence approved earlier by the pro-Moscow regional parliament in Crimea was "absolutely lawful."

Pro-Russian lawmakers in Crimea, which is now occupied by Russian forces, approved the declaration, with 78 out of the 81 lawmakers present voting in favor.

The March 11 move comes ahead of a referendum on March 16 on whether Crimea should become part of Russia.

It appeared to be aimed at creating a legal framework for the region joining Russia as a sovereign state.

Ukraine's parliament has warned the parliament in Crimea that it faces dissolution unless it cancels the referendum.

Western nations and the new government in Kyiv have said they will not recognize the vote.

Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov called the upcoming referendum a "sham" in an exclusive interview with AFP on March 11.

He said, "What they call the referendum will not happen in Crimea but in the offices of the Kremlin."

He also said that Kyiv will not intervene militarily in the separatist peninsula of Crimea, in order to avoid exposing Ukraine's eastern border.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's ousted President Viktor Yanukovych in a statement delivered from the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, reiterated that he is still the country's legitimate leader and vowed to return to Kiyv soon.

It was only the second public appearance by Yanukovych since he fled Ukraine in late February following three months of antigovernment protests. The European Commission has adopted a proposal to extend unilateral trade benefits to Ukraine worth nearly 500 million euros ($693 million) a year.

The Rock Star Poet Who Fought Back

In Brussels, the European Commission has adopted a proposal to extend unilateral trade benefits to Ukraine worth nearly 500 million euros ($693 million) a year.

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the move was "a concrete, tangible" measure of support for Ukraine after the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych.

Once member states and the European parliament have given their approval, the decision will unilaterally remove or reduce import duties on a wide range of agricultural and other goods.

European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said the tax breaks would run until at least November 1 this year, by which time the European Union expects to have signed a full free-trade agreement with Ukraine.

Course part of that might be that when OSCE montiors tried to enter the Crimea, they got shot at.

[frigidmagi]

News from Germany

They play "good cop, bad cop". But when it comes to the crunch, both can also be intransigent. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski So these days in rare candor the interaction of German and Polish diplomacy described in the Ukraine crisis.

About the crucial negotiations with the now deposed President Viktor Yanukovych told Sikorski: "We knew that he would proceed in the old Soviet style. boastful speeches and blame So (Foreign Minister) Steinmeier and I agreed earlier on, interrupting him 'you. ! must stop the killing on the Maidan ', demanded Steinmeier, and I added:'., you must set a date for her resignation ' Yanukovych turned pale. "

On Wednesday, Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk met in Warsaw to arrange the further strategy in the Crimean crisis. Whether Chancellor and Prime similar arrangements for dealing with Russia's President Vladimir Putin met as Sikorski and Steinmeier in case Yanukovych, she did not betray wisely. Instead, they sat demonstrative sign of unity and determination. "We live in the 21st century," Merkel said with indignant undertone. Military threats as they
probe Russia in Ukraine, had no contemporary political means. "But we do not go out of the way conflicts are over."

The Chancellor and the Polish Prime Minister announced further sanctions against Russia, should not the Kremlin until Monday show willingness to dialogue. Merkel did not even hesitate to refer to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty - the Alliance case, which requires the partners in aggression from outside military assistance.

Merkel and Tusk did know about it also going to sign the so long controversial EU Association Agreement with Ukraine as early as next week. At least, this concerns the political part of the contract work, which also involves far-reaching agreements on free trade and movement of goods. On the dispute over the agreement, which refused to sign the then Ukrainian President Yanukovych in the fall, the Maidan-revolution had ignited in Kiev.

Think beyond the Crimean question

In Poland you can hear this kind messages like, and not without reason. So Tusk after his talks with Merkel: "Here in Warsaw you need to explain to anyone what it is about these days." German and Russians had destroyed the Polish capital during the Second World War up to the ground. Threatens again an armed conflict in Europe, this time on the de facto occupied by Russia Ukrainian peninsula in the Black Sea? "The only alternative to military
confrontations are conversations ", underlined Tusk and was" like in all respects "with Merkel agree.

The leaders of the neighboring countries in the heart of Europe were clearly trying to demonstrate unity. The Chancellor took in Warsaw nominally only their inaugural visit to, they had to cancel in January because of a skiing accident. In fact, she met Tusk on this sunny spring day, but at a crisis summit. There was "a danger that Ukraine will perish," warned the Polish government.

On Sunday, the citizens of the Crimea will vote in an illegal referendum in all probability for the elimination of Ukraine and the accession to the Russian Federation. "We need a lot of patience, and we need to think beyond the Crimean question," said Merkel, who had spoken in advance of the visit of an annexation, which
ought not to be let go by the Kremlin.

"Our cards we have on hand, other than those with which Putin plays," said the Premier. The best response to the aggression of the Kremlin were fast and consistent support for Ukraine. Brussels had already put together a billion dollar package to rehabilitate the ailing state budget in Kiev.

Facing threats from Moscow, the EU, if necessary, restrict the flow of gas tap, located Tusk announced calmly: "Our advantage is that Europe is a huge market for Russian raw materials." Russia can not afford an economic war with the West, pointing to the Polish government. His admonitions to show more toughness, which he had expressed earlier this week, Tusk did not repeat. On Monday, the Prime Minister had said during a visit to a missile base: "The dependence on Russian gas, Europe must not paralyze when a firm stance is required This is not only Germany, but the Germans are.
classic example of this dependence. "

On Wednesday, it sounded quite different. "We also talked about the cooperation in the energy sector and developed a common understanding on all issues," said Tusk, without going into detail. "Between us fits no leaf", was obviously the most important signal to send out it was on this day in Warsaw.

Okay, I'm hoping our German speakers can give a better translation then google, but what I got out of this was Merkel and Tusk the head of the Polish Government met and publically agreed that they were gonna stick to Russia if they didn't back the fuck off, but kept military means off the table.

For extra fun, a German media piece discussing how Russia can't afford a trade war.

[frigidmagi]

BBC

About 93% of Crimean voters have backed joining Russia and seceding from Ukraine, exit polls have suggested.

Crowds of pro-Moscow voters celebrated in the main city of Simferopol, and Crimea's pro-Russia leader said he would apply to join Russia on Monday.

But many Crimeans loyal to Kiev boycotted the referendum, and the EU and US condemned it as illegal.

Pro-Russian forces took control of Crimea in February after Ukraine's pro-Moscow president was overthrown.

On the ballot paper, voters were asked whether they would like Crimea to rejoin Russia.

A second question asked whether Ukraine should return to its status under the 1992 constitution, which would give the region much greater autonomy.

Continue reading the main story
Crimea

Autonomous republic within Ukraine
Transferred from Russia in 1954
Ethnic Russians - 58.5%
Ethnic Ukrainians - 24.4%
Crimean Tatars - 12.1%
Source: Ukraine census 2001

There was no option for those who wanted the constitutional situation to remain unchanged.

Ethnic Russians make up 58.5% of the region's population, and many of them were expected to vote for joining Russia.

One voter, Olga Koziko, told the BBC that she was voting for secession because she did not want to be governed by "those Nazis who came to power in Kiev".

"Russia will defend us and protect us," the schoolteacher said.

There are 1.5 million eligible voters and election officials put the turnout in Sunday's vote at more than 80%.

Continue reading the main story
Crisis timeline

21 Nov 2013: President Viktor Yanukovych abandons an EU deal
Dec: Pro-EU protesters occupy Kiev city hall and Independence Square
20 Feb 2014: At least 88 people killed in 48 hours of bloodshed in Kiev
22 Feb: Mr Yanukovych flees; parliament votes to remove him and calls election
27-28 Feb: Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in Crimean capital Simferopol
6 Mar: Crimea's parliament asks to join Russia and sets referendum for 16 March
15 Mar: Russia vetoes UN Security Council resolution condemning Crimea independence referendum
Wording of ballot paper
Law and order breakdown
Is Russian intervention legal?
Ethnic Tatars, who make up 12% of the population, mostly boycotted the election.

Sergei Aksyonov, who was installed as Crimea's regional government leader after Russia's military takeover, said a session of parliament would take place on Monday.

"The Supreme Soviet of Crimea will make an official application for the republic to join the Russian Federation at a meeting on March 17," he said on Twitter after the vote.

But White House spokesman Jay Carney condemned the vote as "dangerous and destabilising" and said it would have "increasing costs for Russia".

The US has previously threatened to impose sanctions on Russia.

The European Union said the vote was "illegal and illegitimate and its outcome will not be recognised".

EU foreign ministers are due to meet on Monday and are expected to consider imposing sanctions on Russian officials.

I won't say the vote was rigged, although I consider it a possbility given there are no montiors. That said the result is possible given the boycott of the opposing votes.

[General Havoc]

The result was likely not rigged, as secession from the Ukraine and adherence with Russia is undoubtedly popular with the Crimean population. That said, there's no way it was THAT popular, overall.

[frigidmagi]

The result was likely not rigged, as secession from the Ukraine and adherence with Russia is undoubtedly popular with the Crimean population. That said, there's no way it was THAT popular, overall.

Alot of the opposing groups boycotted.

Meanwhile...

The threat to close the Bosphorus to Russia comes from a report by Hvylya, citing a Turkish diplomatic source. According to the source, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan yesterday spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone and warned of the consequences for conflict with Ukraine. The Hvylya source was also reported on by UNIAN.

bosporus-wiki-gnu-map

Concerns were also raised about the possible threat to ethnic Crimean Tatars in the region, citing recent murders and communications with Tatar leadership. Erdogan’s call to Putin warned that if Russia invades Ukraine, and so-called ‘Crimean self-defense’ forces engage in violence against the Tatar minority, Turkey will be forced to close passage into the Black Sea to Russian ships.

Extranational protection of ethnic minorities was originally used as pretext for the Russian invasion of Crimea.

In a separate announcement, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoglu, said Moscow was pursing “self-willed policy” in the region and urged Russia to respect the territorial integrity of its neighboring countries. ”The security of Tatars is the main strategic priority for Turkey,” he remarked. ”Pandora’s box should not be opened. If you create a de facto situation in Ukraine, this will have a domino effect on all the countries in the Eurasia region,” Davutoglu said in televised remarks made the day of the Russian implemented referendum.

While the sea-port of Sevastopol has been lauded for its strategic importance as the only warm water port in the Black Sea Russia controls, restriction to it would be a self-made prison. Russian activity in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean is dependent on this passage to Crimea, and restriction would cut off arms shipments between Russia and the Syrian port in Tartus, as as well as lucrative arms deals with Egypt. As Amatzia Baram of Haaretz writes, “for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Sevastopol port is indirectly the key to Syria and perhaps to Egypt and the entire Mediterranean in the future.”

I think there's a bit of hyperbole (I really doubt that Putin has Imperial designs on the entire Med) but the crux of it that Turkey is talking about slamming the doors shut is an somewhat eerily familiar refrain.

Speaking of...

A Ukrainian naval serviceman has been killed by Russian troops who stormed a military base in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, Interfax has claimed.

NBC's Ed Flanagan was first to break news of the assault:


The victim, a Ukrainian officer, was taken to hospital, according to the head of the Ukrainian navy, Serhiy Hayduk.

A Ukrainian military spokesman said: "One Ukrainian serviceman has been wounded in the neck and collarbone. Now we have barricaded ourselves on the second floor.

"The headquarters has been taken and the commander has been taken. They want us to put down our arms but we do not intend to surrender."

"We are being stormed. We have about 20 people here and about 10 to 15 others, including women," an unidentified serviceman told Fifth Channel television.

"One of our officers was wounded during the attack, grazed in the neck and arm."

According to reports, 15 Russian soldiers armed with shotguns and AK-47 stormed the military base.

It happened after Russian president Vladimir Putin and Crimean leaders signed a treaty to annex the Black Sea peninsula after the independence referendum.

British foreign secretary William Hague called the annexation of Crimea by Russia as a land grab. The Ukrainian foreign ministry said that it did not recognise the annexation treaty.

Prime minister David Cameron warned that President Putin's annexation of Crimea has sent a "chilling message" across the whole of Europe.

It has been comfirmed that there was an attack and an Ukrainian officer was killed. No comfirmation if the attackers were Russian military, Cossack paramilitaries or local milita. Whoever it was it represents a major increase in tension and slides us all that much closer to violence.

Violence the Ukrainians are feverishly preparing for...

Ukraine despatched tanks into the rolling terrain of the Donbas basin on Monday, putting its biggest guns back on the scene of the biggest armoured clash in history.

It was in this bleak but fertile landscape along what is now Ukraine's border with Russia that the Red Army routed Nazi Panzers to turn the course of the Second World War.

But as Ukraine's dilapidated tank units moved to muddy berms in the fields south of Donetsk city as part of face-saving mobilisation, the guns of T-64 and T-72 models were this time pointed towards Russia.

In responding to a reported Russian military build-up, however, Ukraine's military immediately ran into groups of activists who tried to obstruct their movements. In the village of Elenvola on the edge of the great plain, there was anger at the manoeuvres from their own countrymen.

"Russians and Ukrainians don't want to fight each other," said Ivan Inozemev, a prison warder. "We would be happy to be part of Russia if that's what happens."

The result of Crimea's independence referendum came as no surprise but confirmation of the result has provided a spur to Ukraine's defenders in the eastern regions nearest Russia to demonstrate their resolve.
Officials in Donetsk face a battle on two fronts. Moscow warns it is ready to respond to pleas for intervention and there is a growing local protest movement demanding a Crimean-style referendum.

The billionaire governor of the region meanwhile has announced scarce local resources would be allotted to fund construction of a system of trenches and other defences to show Russia that an incursion would be resisted.
"This is going to cost us as much as the price of 15 new helicopters," said Sergei Taruta, a metals magnate parachuted into the leadership of the Russian-speaking province in the aftermath of Ukraine revolution.
In tandem he announced a tough new approach to policing in the city. For the first time, Mr Taruta vowed to tackle head on the protest movement that has flourished with Russian-backing.

A day after the demonstrators broke into three buildings in Donetsk, including the headquarters of his own industrial company, Mr Taruta said there would be arrests and the police would break-up menacing gatherings.
"The soft touch is over, we are now going to defend ourselves," he said.

At the front door of the governorate building, his words were immediately put to test. Russian-backed protest leaders assembled to press their demands. Clustered in three distinct groups, these were disciplined and determined petitioners.

Following a blast of the Russian national anthem through loudspeakers placed on the steps, Robert Donia, a slight, balding man in his thirties, told his followers that there would be no violent attempts to gain entry. "We have sent in our demands," he declared. "The regional assembly must write to Kiev to demand a referendum on our future. They must accept this."

In front of the riot police lines, Mr Donia argued with a representative sent out by Mr Taruta for almost half an hour. In the biting wind, his followers pushed and shoved and demanded to be unleashed. The frontman was not taking the bait. "In Crimea yesterday they called a referendum, Donetsk can have the same. We can succeed," blared Mr Donia.

Ukrainian loyalists in Donetsk had demanded a tougher stance from the authorities after one activist was killed by their rivals last Thursday. The news that the state was mobilising to fend off the Russian challenge was a rare boost for the beleaguered activists.

"We must make more efforts to defend ourselves against this movement, which has the backing of the Kremlin," said Arthur Shevtsov, the Donetsk leader of the Right-wing Ukrainian party, Svoboda.

"We haven't got Russian troops here. We haven't got men with guns but wearing no badges. We can bring our people out to stand-up for our country if the security forces protect us.

"This isn't Crimea."

The Ukrainian Government has founded a paramilitary group it's calling the National Guard in addition to their current military assets. I am rather unconvinced that the National Guard will give anything of value, but one could say that of the Ukrainian military as well. Meanwhile the US and the EU have talked of futher sanctions and the spector of clamping down on trade has been raised. My own view is given how sanctions on Iran worked for President Obama, he may consider them the tool of choice in situations like this.

[rhoenix]

This is a layman's perspective here, but I don't think the same economic sanctions will work with Russia. As I understand it, Russia is still a major oil exporter, so most of the countries in a position to impose sanctions (such as Germany) won't because they need the oil. Here's an article about that:

Europe has acute concerns about Russia's military intervention and annexation of Crimea – it's doling out aid to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russian individuals.

But its potentially most punitive weapon – blocking Russian energy exports – remains out of reach. However much Europe might like to express its displeasure by targeting a major part of Russia's economy, it confronts one inescapable fact: It needs Russia's natural gas and oil.

Europe's dependency has concerned both the European Union and the United States for decades, but the current political crisis in Ukraine has driven home the urgent need for Europe to move more aggressively to diversify its energy sources – particularly its natural gas – thus allowing Brussels to be more economically secure, not to mention more geopolitically nimble in challenging Moscow.

Russia's "repeated and persistent and malicious use of energy as a weapon" just ups the urgency for Europe, says David Goldwyn, who served as the US State Department's special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs from 2009 to 2011. "What's happening in Ukraine points out that [supply diversification] was absolutely the right policy to pursue, but it is an unfinished policy."

The energy ties that bind

If it comes to imposing sanctions on Russia, Europe has few better targets than Russia's energy sector, which accounts for more than 50 percent of the government's revenues. In 2012, Russia's state-owned gas-export monopoly, Gazprom, brought some $40 billion into Kremlin coffers. About three-fourths of Russia's gas exports – some 130 billion cubic meters in 2013, according to Gazprom – go to Western Europe.

But that dependence is commutative: Russia supplies about 30 percent of the gas imports that the European Union needs to fuel its vehicles, heat its homes, and run its power plants. So cutting consumption of Russian energy is, at best, a painful proposition for Europe.

Moreover, Russia has shaped its vast resources into a blunt diplomatic tool that it is not shy about wielding. Gazprom promises gas supply, or threatens its absence, as a means of keeping Eastern Europe close and Western Europe at bay. Ukraine – through which about half of Russia's gas to Europe flows – has twice borne the brunt of the Kremlin's energy "weapon" in the past decade: Russia shut off gas to Ukraine amid trade disputes in the winters of 2006 and 2009, both times resulting in trickle-down pain for Europe.

The threat of further disruption through Ukraine spurred the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline system, an alternative northern gas route to Europe through the Baltic Sea that Gazprom completed in 2012. Nord Stream makes landfall in Germany, Russia's largest gas customer, and provides capacity to deliver 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Europe. Berlin worked closely with Moscow to see it built as a way to secure fuel for the factories that drive Germany's export-oriented economy.

But while shoring up Western European gas supplies against a new round of unrest in Ukraine, Nord Stream also expands Europe's reliance on a mercurial supplier it has long tried to displace. "If there is cheap Russian gas available, you might not invest in [other gas sources]," says Stefan Meister, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, "so it can undermine energy security to some extent."

The German-Russian business partnership also influences how Berlin responds to the Ukraine crisis. A shutoff of Russian gas to Germany would be a devastating blow to Europe's largest economy, and ripple across global markets. The risk of upsetting a major supplier of resources and financial wealth, critics say, makes German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European leaders more hesitant to impose significant sanctions on Russia.

US to the rescue?

Both Europe and Russia have diversified their energy strategies over time. Shifting global trends offer new opportunities: Norway increasingly threatens Gazprom's dominance of European markets, while Russia sees its future in Asia (see story, page 20). But neither has so far been willing to wholly abandon an entrenched supply-demand feedback loop.

Now, however, Europe is scrutinizing how it might wean itself to a greater degree from Russian energy.

One solution may lie to Europe's west, where a US gas production boom presents an opportunity to do something unthinkable five years ago: supply Europe with American gas. Many in Washington have pushed for the Obama administration to counter Moscow's resource clout by expanding US capacity to ship liquefied natural gas eastward. Advocates say federal LNG support would send the Kremlin a strong message and help key allies.

Even if this becomes an urgent priority, however, it will be several years before the current dynamic can change. Exporting LNG requires expensive, special ports, and only six such terminals have been approved. Even if the White House were to quickly permit others, LNG projects take years to complete – and domestic prices could increase as gas goes abroad.

Still, American energy is already changing trade flows to Europe's benefit. The shale gas boom "has not resulted in one molecule of gas being exported from the US to Europe," says Simon Pirani, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in England. But it has nonetheless benefited the European market: Cheap coal and Middle Eastern LNG that might have previously been used by the US have instead gone to the EU.

'Fracking' in Europe

If sharing gas is untenable, the US might still export the techniques that produced it. Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," and horizontal drilling were pioneered in stubborn Texan shale rock, and could see results in Europe as well, studies suggest. Several EU countries, including Britain, France, and Poland, are estimated to contain significant gas deposits. Shale gas could meet about a tenth of EU gas demand by 2035, according to a 2012 best-case scenario by the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

American shale is "not a copy-and-paste" scenario, IEA chief Maria van der Hoeven told the Monitor. Europe's geology and landownership laws – wherein mineral rights generally default to the state, rather than the deed holder – are less favorable to extraction.

And many Europeans oppose both the technique of fracking on environmental grounds and the extraction of a fossil fuel that, while cleaner-burning, still emits greenhouse gases.

Fracking is a "distraction and deviation" from solutions offered by energy efficiency and renewables, according to R. Andreas Kraemer, founder and director of the Berlin-based Ecologic Institute, a sustainability and environmental research firm. "You don't want to waste capital and engineering talent on a technology that hastens global overheating," he writes via e-mail.

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Efficiency and diversification

The simplest way to reduce Russian gas use is to reduce gas use generally. High energy prices have pushed European households and businesses to do more with less. The EU's ratio of energy consumption to gross domestic product fell nearly a quarter between 1995 and 2011, and the EU aims to shave 20 percent off its projected energy consumption by 2020.

Renewables are expanding, with a 2030 target of supplying 27 percent of EU energy use. Germany, Spain, and others already have substantial solar and wind capacity. But energy transitions are complex and costly, and renewables are not necessarily a direct substitute for gas.

"Renewables and efficiency are crucial, but gas is an important component," says Claudia Kemfert, professor of energy economics and sustainability at the Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance. Gas plants are cleaner than coal, she writes via e-mail, and therefore better complement renewables when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing.

Ultimately, any effort to ease Europe's dependency on Russian energy will require time and effort. Regardless of how the situation in Ukraine unfolds, Russian gas – and the wealth it brings to Europe's financial centers – is a potent glue.

As Mr. Pirani of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies says, Russian-European interdependence has survived tough times before.

"Don't forget this started in the 1970s and went through the cold war," he says. "It has braved previous political tensions."

[frigidmagi]

So the economic countermoves are heating up.

Japan imposes sanctions on Russia

Japan on Tuesday imposed some modest sanctions on Russia for its recognition of Crimea as an independent state — suspending talks on relaxing visa requirements between the two countries and talks on investment, space exploration and military cooperation.

Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said in a statement that Japan does not recognize the outcome of Crimea's referendum to split from Ukraine, saying it violates the Ukrainian constitution.

"It is regretful that Russia's recognition of the independence of Crimea interferes with the integrity of Ukraine's sovereignty and territory," Kishida told reporters. "We cannot overlook Russia's attempt to change the status quo by force."

The moves are seen as mild compared to sanctions by the U.S. and European Union, which have frozen the assets of individuals linked to the unrest in Crimea or who support the region's vote to secede from Ukraine.

But Japanese officials said that an investment seminar sponsored by private institute but also backed by both governments that is scheduled for Wednesday was still on.

Ties between Russia and Japan have been strained for decades due to a dispute over a cluster of Russian-controlled islands off the northern island of Hokkaido called the southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan. The dispute has kept the two countries from signing a peace treaty after World War II.

But last month, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that negotiations toward forging a treaty were accelerating. Abe is also eager to unleash new trade and energy business with Russia that has been hung up by the dispute.

Kishida urged Russia to comply with international laws, withdraw the recognition of Crimea's independence and not move further toward its annexation.

Reuters

Russia's government acknowledged for the first time on Monday that the economy was in crisis, undermining earlier attempts by officials to suggest albeit weakening growth could weather sanctions over Ukraine.

Moscow markets wait to see the full scale of western measures over the seizure of Ukraine's Crimea and support of its referendum to join Russia, after losing billions of dollars in recent weeks in state and corporate money.

For weeks, Russian officials have said the confrontation between Moscow and the West over Ukraine that threatens economic sanctions and asset freezes would "weigh on the economy".

Although not speaking directly about the impact from the conflict, Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Belyakov said on Monday the economy was in trouble.

"The economic situation shows clear signs of a crisis," Belyakov told a local business conference.

European officials have said they are determined to hit Russia for its actions in Crimea, imposing sanctions including travel bans and asset freezes on those responsible. The United States is expected to take similar steps on Monday .

"People are most afraid of sanctions. Their volume and .. what sanctions there will be and how this will be reflected on the Russian financial system, the economy, the markets and the largest companies," said Konstantin Chernyshev, head or research at Uralsib in Moscow.

Many economists expect Russia to enter recession and most have rushed to slash their growth forecasts as a result of the worst showdown between Russia and the West since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

"Domestic demand is set to halt on the uncertainty shock and tighter financial conditions, likely dipping the economy into a recession over second and third quarter of 2014," Vladimir Kolychev and Daria Isakova, economists are VTB Capital wrote in a note on Monday.

"We are lowering our full-year growth outlook to 0.0 percent, and see downside risks if uncertainty remains elevated for a protracted period and/or severe sanctions are imposed."

The Economy Ministry's most recent estimates, issued before the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, envisage the economy expanding by around 2 percent this year.

HEFTY PRICE FOR POLITICAL WHIMS

Economist have warned ever since President Vladimir Putin declared on March 3 a right to invade Ukraine to defend the Russian-speaking population that the price Moscow will pay for its decisions will be hefty.

The rouble-denominated MICEX index has lost more than $66 billion in market capitalisation and the central bank has spent more than $16 billion of its reserves to defend the rouble. Only last week, MICEX lost 7.6 percent and the dollar-denominated RTS more than 8 percent.

In a matter of a few weeks Russia has gone from being perceived as one of the more resilient emerging markets to the withdrawal of the United States monetary stimulus to one of the most vulnerable developing countries, analysts said.

"Russia's economy was struggling even before the recent rise in geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine and some softer economic data from China," said Alexander Morozov, chief Russia economist at HSBC in Moscow. "Possible economic and financial sanctions on Russia add to the uncertainties."

President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will respect the decision of the peninsula's people and the country's two houses of parliament said they would work as quickly as possible to pass legislation for its accession.

Putin is due to address the parliament on Tuesday in what is broadly expected to be an official recognition of Crimea's appeal to include the region into Russian territory.

Capital has been fleeing Russia in billions since the start of the year. Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and a series of economists see capital flight at $50 billion in the first quarter, compared to $63 billion seen in the whole of 2013.

The rouble is down 11 percent against the dollar this year , continuously breaking through all-time lows.

The Russian central bank vowed on Friday to provide for financial stability after the standoff with the West over Crimea, after unexpectedly raising key rates by 150 basis points in early March to stem capital flight.

The bank, in possession of the world's third-largest stash of gold and foreign reserves, which stand at $494 billion, has some room for manoeuvre. But if the tensions in Ukraine escalate, the bank may burn through the reserves quickly.

"It has become patently clear over the last several days that the Crimean peninsula is the prelude to wider and much more dangerous geo-political tensions over the fate of the Ukrainian mainland," Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London said in a note.

Not everyone is on board though

Russia’s annexation of Crimea has put India in somewhat of a tough spot. While India purports to practice independence in its foreign policy, it remains reliant on Moscow for around 75 percent of its arms imports. But defense purchases aren’t the only consideration in its foreign policy position on the Crimean issue. Similar to China, India has its own considerations regarding Crimea’s referendum to join the Russian Federation — supporting a referendum as the basis for breaking up a country leads India down a dangerous path regarding its own claims to Kashmir (a majority Muslim state that, if offered a referendum, may opt for independence or joining Pakistan).

On Wednesday, reports emerged that sources within the Indian government say that India will refrain from backing sanctions against Russia. The United States and the European Union will pursue a series of limited sanctions against certain Russian political elites. These so called “smart sanctions” have come under scrutiny in the West for not being severe enough given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s disregard for international law.

How India reacts to Russia’s annexation of Crimea will ultimately have important ramifications for how it is perceived on the world stage and for its continued relationship with the Russian Federation. At a time when India’s relations with the United States have been at an all-time low following the spectacle of the Devyani Khobragade affair, India could alienate itself further from the United States by not doing enough to take a strong stand on the Crimean issue.

As a matter of policy, India does not support unilateral sanctions against any state without the backing of the United Nations — in the Russian case, given that any resolution at the UN Security Council on the Crimean issue will be vetoed by Russia, it appears unlikely that India will back sanctions at any point. According to reports from IBN Live, the upcoming UN General Assembly session on Crimea will be important for India’s foreign policy on the issue. India will be able to back a resolution promoting Ukraine’s territorial integrity but will likely abstain from any resolution condemning Russia.

Meanwhile, India’s National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon has gone on the record as acknowledging that Russia has “legitimate interests” in Crimea. ”We are watching what is happening in Ukraine with concern… The broader issues of reconciling various interests involved and there are, after all, legitimate Russian and other interests involved and we hope those are discussed, negotiated and there is a satisfactory resolution to them,” Menon said earlier this month as the crisis in Crimea slowly ramped up.

If the international community comes together to isolate Russia in the short-term, as is likely, New Delhi might find that its balancing act grows increasingly more difficult.

[frigidmagi]

In the wake of the Crimea vote:

Ukrainian navy decimated

Ukraine's maritime forces have been dealt a heavy blow by the Russian intervention in Crimea, with 12 of its 17 major warships and much of its naval aviation assets falling under Moscow's control.

In the eight days since the controversial referendum on 16 March that opened the door for Crimea to be absorbed in the Russian Federation, almost every Ukrainian naval base and ship on the peninsula has been seized by Russian forces or local pro-Moscow self defence units.

The scale of the crisis facing the Ukrainian navy is apparent from the fact that around 12,000 of its 15,450 personnel were based in Crimea when Russia intervened on 27 February. Over the past three weeks, the majority of the Ukrainian military personnel on Crimea have defected to the Russian military or resigned from military service, according to announcements by the new pro-Kremlin administration in Crimea. Some independent media reports appear to broadly support Russian claims in this regard.

In a major blow to its pride, the Ukrainian navy's commander, Admiral Serhiy Hayduk, was arrested by Russian forces when the navy headquarters in Sevastapol was seized on 19 March, and was unceremoniously dropped off by Russian troops at the new "border" checkpoint with Ukraine in the north of Crimea. Those of the admiral's sailors who wanted to continue to serve in Kiev's navy had to make their own way off the peninsula in civilian cars or on public transport.

In Sevastopol, the Russians seized intact four major warship, the Grisha V-class frigates Ternopil and Lutsk , the Pauk-class corvette/patrol vessels Khmelnytskyi , and the Bambuk-class command ship Slavutych , as well as Ukraine's only submarine, the Foxtrot-class Zaporizhzhia . Also seized in Sevastopol was the ocean-going tug Korets .

At the same time as Russian forces were boarding Ukrainian vessels in Sevastopol, other special forces units and armed civilians were seizing Ukraine's Naval Base South at Novoozerne, on the north west coast of Crimea. Seven Ukrainian warships, including the Ropucha I-class landing ship, Kostiantyn Olshansky , had been blockaded in the base on Lake Dunuzlov since the start of the crisis after the Russian navy sank the hulk of two warships in the access channel leading to the sea. The Natya-class minesweeper Cherkasy unsuccessfully tried to open a passage by pulling away one of the blocking ships on 21 March although a Russian warship moved to block the escape attempt, according to a video posted on a social media site.

Ukraine's 10th Saski Naval Air Brigade, which controlled all of the country's maritime aviation assets, fared better at evading the Russian occupation, and managed to get a number of its aircraft and helicopters airborne from Novofedorivka airbase to fly to bases in mainland Ukraine on 5 March. This included one Kamov Ka-27PL and three Mil Mi-14PL maritime helicopters, one Beriev Be-12 amphibian and two Antonov An-26 transports, according to film of the escape posted on social media sites. More than a dozen aircraft and helicopters which were undergoing maintenance had to be left behind. The long-term sustainability of the Ukrainian navy's surviving helicopters is uncertain after the pro-Russian administration in Crimea nationalised all state owned enterprises, including the Sevastopol Aviation Enterprise, which had provided long-term maintenance and overhaul of the services helicopters.

The rump of the Ukrainian navy is now concentrated at the service's Naval Base North at Odessa. This force boasts less than half a dozen large surface combatants as well as several small patrol craft. It includes the pride of the navy, the Krivak III-class frigate Hetman Sagaidachny , which was returning from an Indian Ocean counter-piracy mission as the Crimea crisis broke and was able to divert to Odessa. The frigate and its embarked Ka-27 helicopter have since carried out one maritime security patrol, off Ukraine's southern western territorial waters, over a seven day period up to 21 March. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence the ship encountered four Russian ships and two Mil Mi-35 attack helicopters probing the country's territorial waters and airspace but the two sides did not engage each other.

Ukraine's navy now faces an uncertain future. As well as losing the bulk of its ships, helicopters and aircraft, it headquarters building, much of the service's signals intelligence, training, administration, maintenance, and logistics infrastructure has now been lost. This includes the service's main underground ammunition storage site at Inkermann valley, outside Sevastopol. Russian naval patrols have also blockaded the access to the Sea of Azov to the east of Ukraine, cutting off military and civilian access to ports in the east of the country.

On 24 March, the last remaining major unit of the Ukrainian navy on Crimea still holding out - the 750 strong 1st Marine Battalion at Feodesia in the east of the peninsula - was overrun and many of its personnel were arrested. The unit's commanders had been negotiating with the Russians to be allowed to drive off Crimea with all their vehicles, weapons, and equipment so its dispersal will be a significant blow to its morale and unit cohesion.

On 24 March, the Russian authorities claimed to have seized some 189 Ukrainian bases on Crimea, including final sections of the Balbek airbase held by personnel of the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade; the airbase was overrun by Russian Spetsnaz troops in a dramatic assault two days earlier. The brigade's 39 Mig-29 fighters were seized in the first days of the crisis. The Ukrainian air force's 174th Air Defence Regiment base at Fiolent on the outskirts of Sevastapol was overrun on 21 March and its inventory of S-300 surface-to-air missiles seized. The fate of the last two Ukrainian air defence regiments on Crimea, the 55th regiment at Yevpatoriya and 50th regiment at Feodesia - and their S-300 and Buk-M1 weapon systems - is uncertain.

Some 2,000 Ukrainian air force and air defence personnel were believed to be based in Crimea before the crisis, along with a similar number of paramilitary police and border guard personnel. No major Ukrainian army units were trapped on Crimea, so the service has largely escaped the convulsions that have seriously impacted the country's navy and air force.

So the Ukranian navy has been gutted, which is unfortunate but frankly they could never afford a navy that would survive contact with the Black Sea fleet anyways.

The ground forces haven't been having fun either.

Just a year ago, Ruslan, a marine in Ukraine's top battalion stationed in the Crimean port of Feodosiya, helped Russian soldiers paint their armoured personnel carrier for a military parade.

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On Monday, he spotted the same vehicle being used to block the gate to his base as Russians showered its barracks with tear gas and stun grenades in a pre-dawn raid that took the unarmed Ukrainians by complete surprise.

"We thought of them as our own, as our brothers," said Ruslan, who declined to give his last name.

"We trusted them... and they trusted us," he told AFP at a Feodosiya cafe after spending hours in Russian custody.

"And now they received these orders (to attack us), and what they did was completely inhuman. It's not the Christian way."

Ruslan, who is in his late 20s, said he was torn by Moscow's seizure and annexation of Crimea as his parents live in Ukraine and his wife and children were born on the peninsula.

View galleryA Ukrainian marine shares a tender moment with his …
A Ukrainian marine shares a tender moment with his family in eastern Crimea's port city of Feodo …
The Feodosiya base, where he served for six years, is one of the last Ukrainian military bases in Crimea to fall under Russian control.

But it was not the tear gas that stung these marines the most -- it was the Russians who broke a promise to allow them to leave the base peacefully on Monday in exchange for their arms.

"There was an agreement that we hand over the weapons... and at noon today we were to lower the flag and drive out on our trucks to go to the mainland. But that's not what happened," Ruslan said.

The unit locked up its armoury and handed it over -- but then was woken up by a raid at 4:00 am.

- 'They took everything' -

View galleryUkrainian marines hug each other as they leave their …
Ukrainian marines hug each other as they leave their military unit for home in eastern Crimea's …
"They fired bullets at us while we were completely unarmed," said Yevgeniy, another marine.

"My friend had his nose broken with the butt of a rifle for nothing, he put up no resistance.

"They took our military IDs, phones, money -- everything they could lay their hands on."

The marines said that if they had known this was going to happen, they would never have surrendered their weapons.

A soldier Yevgeniy knew tied him up and loaded him onto a Ural military truck at 6:00 am.

View galleryUkrainian marines sit in a bus as they leave their …
Ukrainian marines sit in a bus as they leave their military unit for home in eastern Crimea's po …
"He said 'Sorry brother, we have nothing to do with this. The security services are at work here'."

As Russia asserts its control over Crimea, Ukrainian servicemen note the irony that many of those under attack were themselves born in Russia and felt closer to Moscow than their new government.

In the early days of the blockade, Russians besieging the base carried food parcels to the Ukrainians inside, who then frequently shared the food.

- 'No orders' -

"We resisted for 23 days on dried food, on canned fish. Could defence ministry officials have survived like that for so long?" Ruslan asked bitterly.

"They kept saying, 'Hold on... it's being decided'.

"We asked them for a command, but there was nothing."

The angry marines are ready to go straight to Kiev and raise some hell, said Yevgeniy, who is also in his late 20s.

"We'll go back to Ukraine. If nobody picks us up at the border, all of us will go to Kiev to the Rada (parliament), to the defence ministry.

"We'll storm them, and maybe then they'll treat us differently," he said as he waited for a bus to the border town of Chongar.

Ukraine should have immediately put up barriers at all Russian crossings to protect Crimea, the marines said. They think the peninsula has been lost because of poor leadership.

Former president Viktor "Yanukovych should have used troops at Maidan," Yevgeniy said, referring to the Kiev square occupied by pro-European protesters who toppled the pro-Moscow leader last month.

"He believed the wrong people... and where is he now? And where are we now? We are totally fucked."

The current leaders might like what he has to say if he gets to Keiv.

Speaking of those leaders

A Ukrainian ultra-nationalist leader has been shot dead in what officials describe as a special forces operation.

Oleksandr Muzychko, better known as Sashko Bily, died in a shoot-out with police in a cafe in Rivne in western Ukraine, the interior ministry said.

He was a leader of Right Sector, a far-right group which was prominent in the recent anti-government protests.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's parliament has voted to accept the resignation of Defence Minister Ihor Tenyukh.

Mr Tenyukh had been accused of indecision in the face of Russia's military takeover of Crimea.

The shooting of Muzychko happened just hours after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Deshchytsia - their first meeting since Russia's move into Crimea triggered a diplomatic crisis.

Ukraine's Deputy Interior Minister Vladimir Yevdokimov said Muzychko died after opening fire at police and Sokol special forces, who had raided a cafe to arrest him and fellow ultra-nationalists. The authorities described Muzychko as a criminal gang leader.

During the raid, Muzychko fired at police as he was trying to flee, wounding one of them. Police then returned fire and captured him and three others in his "criminal gang", Mr Yevdokimov said.

"He was still alive as they were arresting him - but then the paramedics, called to the scene, found that he had died," Mr Yevdokimov said. The three arrested gang members have been taken to Kiev for questioning.

A Right Sector organiser in Rivne has now threatened revenge for the killing of Muzychko, saying he had not been summoned by investigators.

"We will avenge ourselves on [Interior Minister] Arsen Avakov for the death of our brother. The shooting of Sashko Bily is a contract killing ordered by the minister," said Roman Koval of the Right Sector in Rivne region, quoted by the Ukrayinska Pravda website.

Conflicting account
Earlier, a Ukrainian MP, Oles Doniy, gave a different version of events. He said two cars had forced Muzychko's car to stop, and he had then been dragged into one of the other cars. Later his body was found dumped, his hands tied behind his back and two bullet wounds in his heart, Doniy wrote overnight on his Facebook page.

Correspondents say Muzychko acquired notoriety in Ukraine after he was filmed brandishing an AK-47 assault rifle at a town hall session in western Ukraine, and then harassing a local prosecutor. After that, in February, the Ukrainian interior minister condemned his behaviour and promised to investigate.

Moscow says the activities of Right Sector and other Ukrainian nationalist groups pose a threat to the large Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin gave that as one of his reasons for intervening in Crimea.

However, some commentators say Russia has deliberately whipped up such fears, and that the influence of Right Sector in Ukrainian politics is exaggerated.

Earlier, Russian authorities issued an arrest warrant for Muzychko, accusing him of atrocities against Russian soldiers in Chechnya.

The Russian indictment says he tortured captive Russian soldiers in the 1990s, when Moscow was trying to crush Chechen separatist guerrillas. Muzychko denied the allegations. Reports say he led a group of Ukrainian nationalists who fought alongside the Chechen rebels.

Crimea withdrawal
In the Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday, MPs appointed Gen Mykhaylo Koval as the new defence minister, after approving the resignation of his predecessor, Ihor Tenyukh.

Mr Tenyukh had offered to leave the post following growing criticism of his response to the Russian annexation of Crimea. Many deputies had described that response as indecisive.

Gen Koval has served in the country's Border Service, and was briefly detained by pro-Russian forces during their takeover of Crimea.

Mr Tenyukh said he had received requests to leave Crimea from about 6,500 soldiers and family members. That means about two-thirds of the 18,800 military personnel and relatives stationed there are staying on the peninsula, the Associated Press news agency reports.

Earlier, a senior Ukrainian armed forces officer, Oleksandr Rozmaznin, was quoted as saying nearly half of the Ukrainian military staff based in Crimea had opted to stay there and some of them were joining the Russian military.

Meanwhile, a toughly-worded statement from the G7 group of industrialised countries, condemned both the Crimean vote to secede and Russia's annexation of Crimea. The G7 called Russia's actions a "clear violation of international law". Russia has now been excluded from what was the G8.

Moscow initially reacted scornfully to the G7 snub, saying "the G8 is an informal club" which "can't purge anyone by definition".

But later President Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said "the Russian side continues to be ready to have such contacts at all levels, including the top level. We are interested in such contacts".

Also on Tuesday, US President Barack Obama addressed the crisis during a joint news conference with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, saying that Russia was "threatening some of its immediate neighbours, not out of strength, but out of weakness".

He expressed concern about the possibility Russia would encroach further on Ukrainian territory and about the large numbers of Russian troops massed on the border.

Mr Obama said he hoped the International Monetary Fund would quickly finalise an aid package for Ukraine, adding that it was important to help Ukraine hold successful elections in May.

The Ukrainians are cleaning house. I wish I could believe this will quiet down all the Russians screeching about Nazis running Keiv but who am I kidding?

Ukranian and Russians leaders finally talking

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Deshchytsia, for the first time since Russia's move into Crimea triggered a diplomatic crisis.

Mr Lavrov says Russia is unfazed by the prospect of being expelled from the G8.

Other members of the group of industrialised countries have agreed not to hold a planned summit in Russia.

The move comes as Ukrainian troops are leaving Crimea after Russian forces seized military bases in the region.

Earlier this month, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine after a referendum considered illegal by Kiev and the West.

'No great tragedy'
Mr Lavrov met Mr Deshchytsia, Ukraine's interim foreign minister, on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit in The Hague on Monday.

"We set forth our vision to establish good national dialogue taking into account all residents of Ukraine," Mr Lavrov told a news conference.

He also said he saw "no great tragedy" if Moscow was expelled from the G8 group of leading nations over its annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

"If our Western partners think that this format has outlived itself, then so be it. At the very least, we are not trying to cling on to this format," he told reporters.

The remaining members of the body, who also met on the sidelines of the nuclear summit, agreed that the planned G8 summit in Russia in June would be called off because of Russia's aggression toward Ukraine.

Instead they will meet as the G7 in Brussels at about the same time.

US Secretary of State John Kerry also met Mr Lavrov on Monday and expressed "strong concern" about the massing of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border, Reuters quoted a senior US state department official as saying.

Several G8 members have also called for Russia's membership of the group to be suspended.

Meanwhile, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has denied the authenticity of a taped conversation in which she allegedly called for Russia to be turned into "scorched earth" and for ethnic Russians in Ukraine to be killed.

Ms Tymoshenko said the recording, which has featured prominently on Russian news reports, was produced by Russia's security services.

She admitted speaking by telephone with Nestor Shufrych, a member of Ukraine's parliament and a close ally, but she said her words had been edited to discredit her.

Ships stormed
In the recording, Ms Tymoshenko is allegedly heard saying Ukrainians should take up arms to "smash" Russia and its President Vladimir Putin.

Ms Tymoshenko was released from prison in February after a controversial verdict on her actions as prime minister.

Ukraine's interim President Olexander Turchynov said he ordered the military pullout from Crimea on Monday morning because of "Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families".

His announcement came shortly after Russian forces seized a naval base at Feodosia - the last military base under Ukrainian control in the region. It was the third such takeover in 48 hours.

Russian forces also reportedly stormed a Ukrainian naval ship blockaded in Lake Donuzlav, in western Crimea, on Monday.

Russia has said it had acted to protect its "compatriots" in Crimea from "fascists" moving in from mainland Ukraine.

The US and EU have responded to the annexation with a series of sanctions targeting those individuals, including senior officials, accused of involvement in the move.

Moscow's annexation of Crimea on 16 March came after protesters overthrew pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych in February.

It followed months of street protests sparked by Mr Yanukovych's decision to reject a planned EU trade deal in favour of closer ties with Moscow.

[frigidmagi]

Crimea decides screw the Tatars!

The Crimean Tatars will not have the 20 percent quota in the regional parliament that was promised to them before Russia annexed the peninsula earlier this month, parliamentary officials said.

Vice President of the Crimean Parliament and head of the constitutional committee Grigory Ioffe said the decision to grant the Crimean Tatars a quota-based representation had been made before Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill of annexation.

No legislative measure to create such type of quota exist under Russian law, Ioffe stated, before adding that elections for executives in Russia were done through "principles of equality."

Ioffe reiterated that all of the ethnic and religious groups in Crimea will be treated equally and based on their qualifications.

According to the new constitution, Russian, Ukrainian and Tatar will have equal status as the official languages of Crimea, he said.

Putin signed into law the annexation of Crimea following a March 16 referendum that saw 97 percent of the population vote in favor of joining Russia.

The U.S., EU and Ukraine have called the vote "illegitimate" with most of the international community contesting the Kremlin's claims regarding the 'yes' vote, saying that the Tatars - who make up 13 percent of Crimea's 2.1. million people - boycotted the vote.

The Crimean Tatars are the peninsula's indigenous population. They were deported en masse to Central Asia by Moscow in 1944, before being allowed to return to their homeland in the late 1980s as the Soviet Union began to collapse.

The Vice President's quote is fucking wonderful.

[frigidmagi]

Ukraine moves to disarm paramilitary groups.

Ukraine’s Parliament on Tuesday ordered law enforcement agencies to immediately disarm unofficial paramilitary groups, signaling growing resolve in the interim government to confront nationalists and other vigilantes who played a big role in the overthrow of Viktor F. Yanukovych, the country’s pro-Kremlin former president who was deposed more than a month ago.

The bill, introduced and passed unanimously, ordered both the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s successor to the K.G.B., to disarm the groups because of the “aggravation of the crime situation and systematic provocations on the part of foreigners in southeastern Ukraine and in Kiev.”

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RELATED COVERAGE

Russia Tightens Pressure on Ukraine With Rise in Gas PriceAPRIL 1, 2014
Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia, right, visited a children's hospital on Monday in Simferopol, the Crimean capital.Russia Raises Some Salaries and Pensions for CrimeansMARCH 31, 2014
The attempt to further consolidate control domestically came as Russia delivered yet another blow to the fledgling Ukraine government, which the Kremlin regards as illegal. Gazprom, the Russian state gas giant, announced a 40 percent increase in the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine, which is heavily dependent on Russia for its gas supply.

Continue reading the main story

Ukraine Crisis in Maps
The passage of the anti-paramilitary bill comes as tensions in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, have grown between nationalist groups who continue to patrol the main squares of the city and Arsen Avakov, the country’s new interior minister.

A member of Right Sector, arguably the largest and best-organized ultranationalist group in Kiev, was accused of opening fire with a pistol on the city’s main square on Monday evening during a dispute with members of other self-defense groups.

After the incident, police officers armed with automatic rifles surrounded the group’s headquarters at a downtown hotel and began negotiations. Just after dawn on Tuesday morning, members of the group, many in military fatigues and balaclavas, boarded buses and left for a “training ground” outside the city, according to local news and video reports.

“What should the minister do?” Mr. Avakov wrote in a post on his Facebook page, which has become a clearinghouse for information on police activity since he took office. “Correctly, I gave the order to blockade the gang and detain those who were guilty.”

In Moscow, Alexei Miller, the head of Gazprom, said Tuesday that Russia would revoke a discount on gas prices granted as part of a financial lifeline granted to Mr. Yanukovych in December, raising the price to $385.50 per thousand cubic meters from $268.50 per thousand cubic meters.

Mr. Miller, in comments to reporters in Moscow, also said that Ukraine owed more than $1.7 billion to Gazprom alone. Prime Minister Dmitry A. Medvedev of Russia said last month that Ukraine’s overall debt to Russia was $16 billion.

Russia raises Gas Prices

Even as American and Russian diplomats groped toward a settlement that would halt further Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Gazprom, the Russian energy company, stepped up the economic pressure on Tuesday by sharply raising the price it charges for natural gas.

Gazprom, a state-controlled gas exporter, raised the price to $385 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas, the standard measure used in gas deals in Europe, from $268, an increase of 44 percent.

The price increase follows what analysts say is a long practice at Gazprom of punitive pricing for countries in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe that are at odds politically with Moscow, while offering discounts to governments seen as friendly. The policy is never stated openly, though, and the change on Tuesday was no exception.

Aleksei B. Miller, Gazprom’s chief executive, attributed the price increase to an unpaid debt for gas, making no mention of the recent revolution in Ukraine.

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RELATED COVERAGE

A self-defense recruit during a combat class in Kiev's Independence Square in March.Ukraine Moves to Disarm Paramilitary GroupsAPRIL 1, 2014

Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia, right, visited a children's hospital on Monday in Simferopol, the Crimean capital.Russia Raises Some Salaries and Pensions for Crimeans

Having failed to pay the debt, Ukraine no longer qualified for a reduction that Gazprom had offered the Ukrainian national energy company in December, Mr. Miller said. That price break was an incentive Moscow granted to Ukraine in return for its rejecting a free-trade pact with the European Union, a move that touched off the protests that eventually doomed the government of President Viktor F. Yanukovych.

“The December discount on gas cannot be applied,” Mr. Miller told reporters in Moscow.

The jump in the price came as no surprise to the new authorities in Ukraine. They have already planned, as required under an International Monetary Fund loan program, to slash state subsidies that have kept gas prices artificially low for consumers and industry.

Over the weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, failed to agree on a diplomatic solution to the crisis during talks in Paris. On Monday, however, Russia’s military withdrew a battalion of about 500 troops from the border with Ukraine, a mostly symbolic reduction in a force of about 40,000.

The army has said it is merely carrying out exercises, and Mr. Lavrov and other Russian officials have offered assurances that they do not intend to invade Ukraine. But President Vladimir V. Putin has said he will intervene to protect Russian speakers anywhere in Ukraine, if Ukrainian nationalists threaten them.

The gas price rise illustrated how, even if the Russian Army withdrew from the border, Russia would retain numerous economic weapons to wield against Ukraine, and it is widely expected to use them, deftly and unrelentingly, as it has for years.

Russia has closed border crossings to trucks and has shut two chocolate factories in Russia owned by the leading Ukrainian presidential candidate, Petro Poroshenko. Purchases of missiles from a Ukrainian factory have been canceled.

On Monday, Russia tried positive reinforcement in Crimea, the former Ukrainian territory that it now controls, doubling pensions and increasing public sector salaries, illustrating the financial benefits of allegiance with Russia.

“The resulting economic squeeze on Ukraine, together with painful economic reforms that will be necessary to put Ukraine’s financial house in order, could trigger social unrest that further destabilizes Ukraine and gives Russia a pretext to intervene,” IHS, an energy consultancy, said in a research note on the gas price increase.

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In Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, Parliament ordered law enforcement agencies on Tuesday to immediately disarm unofficial paramilitary groups, signaling growing resolve in the interim government to confront nationalists and other vigilantes who played a major role in the overthrow of Mr. Yanukovych, who was deposed more than a month ago.

A bill, introduced and passed unanimously, ordered the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s successor to the K.G.B., to disarm the groups because of the “aggravation of the crime situation and systematic provocations on the part of foreigners in southeastern Ukraine and in Kiev.”

The passage of the anti-paramilitary bill comes as tensions in the capital have grown between Arsen Avakov, the country’s new interior minister, and nationalist groups that continue to patrol the main squares of the city. The groups mostly ignored an order this month to turn in their arms.

A member of Right Sector, one of the largest and best-organized ultranationalist groups in Kiev, was accused of opening fire with a pistol in the city’s main square on Monday evening during a dispute with members of other self-defense groups.

After the episode, police officers armed with automatic rifles surrounded the group’s headquarters at a downtown hotel and began negotiations. Just after dawn on Tuesday, members of the group, many in military fatigues and balaclavas, boarded buses and left for a “training ground” outside the city, according to local news reports.

“What should the minister do?” Mr. Avakov wrote on Facebook, which has become a clearinghouse for information on police activity since he took office. “Correctly, I gave the order to blockade the gang and detain those who were guilty.”

In response to Russia declaring it's willing to protect Russian Speakers, The Ukraine has made an offer.

Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday approved a series of joint military exercises with NATO countries that would put US troops in direct proximity to Russian forces in the annexed Crimea peninsula.

"This is a good opportunity to develop our armed forces," acting defense minister Mykhailo Koval told Verkhovna Rada lawmakers ahead of the 235-0 vote.

The decision came as NATO foreign ministers gathered in Brussels for a two-day meeting dominated by concern over the recent buildup of Russian forces near Crimea that US officials estimate had at one point reached about 40,000 troops.

More from GlobalPost: Will Russia invade Ukraine or is it already happening?

NATO has sought to reinforce its eastern frontier after Russia's takeover of Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula and amid concerns about Kremlin's emboldened foreign policy.

Russia on Monday reported pulling back a battalion of about 500 to 700 soldiers from the border region in a move that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called "a small sign that the situation is becoming less tense."

Ukraine is not a NATO member and its new Western-backed leaders have vowed not to push for closer relations with the Brussels-based military alliance — a bloc that has been viewed with deep mistrust by Moscow since the Cold War.

More from GlobalPost: Russia’s playing a long game over Ukraine

But the ex-Soviet nation did form a "distinctive partnership" with the Alliance in 1997 and has been staging joint exercises with its state members ever since.

The exercises approved on Tuesday would see Ukraine conduct two sets of military exercises with the United States this summer — Rapid Trident and Sea Breeze — that have prompted disquiet in Russia in previous years.

Ukraine is planning two additional manoeuvres with NATO member Poland as well as joint ground operations with Moldova and Romania.

The Sea Breeze exercises have particularly irritated Moscow because they had on occasion been staged in Crimea — the home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

More from GlobalPost: Here’s what the West should do about Ukraine

Those manoeuvres have in more recent years been moved to the Black Sea port of Odessa where Ukraine also has a naval base.

An explanatory note accompanying the Tuesday bill says that the naval section of Sea Breeze would this time be conducted over a 25-day span between July and October out of two Odessa ports and "along the waters of the Black Sea."

[frigidmagi]

BBC

Moscow is pressing Nato to explain its plans to beef up military presence in Eastern Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said.

"We not only expect answers, but answers... based fully on respect for the rules we agreed on," he said.

Nato earlier said it would reinforce the alliance's defences in Eastern Europe following Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

Nato also halted all civilian and military co-operation with Russia.

Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region was the gravest threat to European security for a generation.

At a summit in Brussels, the alliance also expressed concerns over a massive build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine's eastern border, amid fears of invasion.

Moscow is believed to have massed tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border.

Nato planners are currently looking at options including situating permanent military bases in the Baltic states to reassure members in Eastern Europe.

Russia's actions in Ukraine have caused concern in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - all Nato members which were part of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Nato jets will take part in air patrols in the region later in a routine exercise that analysts say has taken on added significance due to the crisis. Several Nato countries, including the UK, US and France, have offered additional military aircraft.

But Mr Lavrov accused Nato of exaggerating the importance of Russian troop movements on the borders of eastern Ukraine.

He said Russia had the right to move troops within its territory and that the forces currently near the border would return to their permanent bases after completing military exercises.

I agree that Russia has every right to move troops within its territory as it sees fit. However I would reply that same logic applies to NATO, if Russia has the right to move it's troops within it's borders then the members of NATO have that same right.

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BBC

Ukraine's acting President Olexander Turchynov has announced the start of an "anti-terrorist operation" against pro-Russian separatists.

He told parliament it was being conducted "stage by stage, in a responsible... manner".

Hours later, gunfire was heard at an airbase which officials said had been in the hands of militants.

Mr Turchynov said the airbase at Kramatorsk had been "liberated" from "terrorists".

Pro-Russian rebels have seized buildings in about 10 towns and cities across Ukraine's eastern provinces, which form the heartland of Ukraine's heavy industry.

Thousands of Russian troops are reported to be deployed along the border, kindling fears that any crackdown on the rebels could trigger an invasion.

'Expressed alarm'
Russia annexed the Ukrainian province of Crimea last month, after it broke away and held a controversial referendum on self-determination.

The White House on Tuesday described the Ukrainian government's response as measured, and warned it was "seriously considering" further sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he expected the actions of Ukraine's government in Kiev to be condemned by the international community.

The comments came in a phone call with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, who "expressed his alarm" at events and warned against any further "deepening of the crisis", according to a statement from his office.

Earlier Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Ukraine was on the verge of civil war and has urged the Kiev authorities to avert further turmoil.

Angry crowd
The BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse in Kramatorsk reported that an angry crowd had gathered outside the airbase, prompted by the arrival of two helicopters carrying soldiers they said had come from Kiev.


Footage posted online, which cannot be independently verified, apparently shows pro-Russian activists in a Lada confronting a Ukrainian tank
A crowd of some 200 people remained on Tuesday evening, chanting slogans in favour of a referendum on the region's future, our correspondent adds.

A spokesman for the Russian foreign ministry expressed "deep concern" at reports of casualties in eastern Ukraine, but these could not be confirmed.

Display of force
After days when there was little sign of the Ukrainian government exerting its authority in eastern Ukraine, Tuesday saw a very public display of force at a checkpoint just north of the Donetsk region, in the Kharkiv region, the BBC's Daniel Sandford reports.

But if Ukrainian forces attempt to move on to the town of Sloviansk, they will find what looked like very experienced soldiers on the pro-Russian side, our correspondent adds.

Ukrainian armoured personnel carriers on the road from Donetsk to Odessa, 15 April
Ukrainian armoured personnel carriers could be seen on the road from Odessa to Donetsk
Pro-Russian protesters in Sloviansk, eastern Ukraine, 15 April
Pro-Russian protesters manned barricades in Sloviansk
Guards struggle with protesters outside the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev, 15 April
Guards struggled with anti-separatist protesters outside the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev
In other developments:

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the country's economy faced "the most difficult conditions since the 2008 crisis", with capital flight in the first quarter of this year of $63bn (£38bn; 46bn euros), because of "risks seen by the population and by investors"
German utility company RWE AG said in a statement it had started supplying gas to Ukraine, which faces Russian cuts over unpaid bills
'Stop the terror'
Mr Turchynov said the aim of the operation in the east was to "protect Ukrainian citizens, to stop the terror, to stop the crime, to stop the attempts to tear our country apart".

Protesters gathered outside parliament in Kiev to demand action against the separatists.

There were reports overnight of gun attacks on rebel checkpoints near the Donetsk town of Sloviansk, where pro-Russian militants seized a police station and a security services building at the weekend.

A police building in Kramatorsk was also seized but the militants there have reportedly now handed back control to the police.


James Reynolds reports from outside a pro-Russian barricade in Mariupol, and Olga Ivshina reports from inside the government building
'Tanks or talks'
The US and Russian presidents have discussed the crisis by telephone.

Barack Obama urged Vladimir Putin to use his influence to make separatists in Donetsk and other parts of eastern Ukraine stand down.

Mr Putin denied that Russia was intervening in the crisis.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that any use of force by the Ukrainian government in the east could undermine talks on the crisis involving the EU, Russia, the US and Ukraine, which are due to be held in Geneva on Thursday.

"You can't send tanks against your own citizens and at the same time hold talks," he said on a visit to China.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said later on Tuesday that the US was considering additional sanctions against Russia but would not be providing lethal aid to Ukraine.

In a statement, the Kremlin blamed the unrest in Ukraine's south-east on the "unwillingness and inability of the leadership in Kiev to take into account the interests of Russia and the Russian-speaking population".

You know, in a certain view the Russian line is almost honest. "You weren't listening to us enough so we're helping the Russian speakers in the East raise hell."

Also bluntly the Russians can't talk shit about the Ukraine in regards to suppressing protestors or such. They bombed to rubble entire cities for deciding they didn't want to be part of Russia.