Can Thailand's coup break the country's political impasse?

[rhoenix]

No shots were fired on Tuesday when the Thai military imposed martial law, insisting that this was not a coup.

Sure, armored personnel carriers rolled out into the streets, the army shut down partisan media outlets, and the prime minister was cut out of the loop, but Thai Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha at first insisted this was no coup.

Well, today the pretense was emphatically dropped, with Gen. Prayuth announcing that he was taking charge of Thailand. For years, the country has been roiled by political turmoil that broadly pits elites and the urban middle class against rural and poorer Thais who repeatedly vote for leaders deemed unpalatable by traditional elites.

An interim cabinet now answers to the military, TV news broadcasts have been cut, and political meetings and protests have been banned. Prayuth presented the coup as a necessary step in his televised address Thursday.

"In order for the situation to return to normal quickly and for society to love and be at peace again ... and to reform the political, economic and social structure, the military needs to take control of power," he said, according to a translation by Reuters.

US Secretary of State responded in a sharply-worded statement that referred to his "disappointment" and said that "this act will have negative implications for the U.S.–Thai relationship, especially for our relationship with the Thai military." he continued:

I am concerned by reports that senior political leaders of Thailand’s major parties have been detained and call for their release. I am also concerned that media outlets have been shut down. I urge the restoration of civilian government immediately, a return to democracy, and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, such as press freedoms. The path forward for Thailand must include early elections that reflect the will of the people.

In addition to shutting down local TV news stations, Thailand appeared to be jamming broadcasts of international news outlets like the BBC and CNN. A BBC producer tweeted that the channel's signal is now being overridden by Thai state programming, including a logo for the junta now in charge, which is calling itself the National and Peace and Order Maintaining Council.

Bangkok's The Nation newspaper reports, citing an unnamed source, that Prayuth leaned on both pro and anti-government politicians at a meeting on Wednesday to resolve their differences, something they failed to do. Prayuth then broke up the meeting and reconvened it later. He asked interim Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri if the government would resign. Chaikasem refused and Prayuth responded, according to the paper: "Then as of this minute, I have decided to seize power." All of the attendees at the meeting have since been taken into custody.

What comes next could be bloody confrontation, not peace. Thailand's so-called "red shirts," supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed as prime minister by a coup in 2006, and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was deposed by a court order earlier this month, are likely to be made even angrier by this move. The military has already begun roughly dismantling a red shirt encampment in Bangkok, while also dispersing followers of anti-Shinwatra firebrand Suthep Thaugsuban.

Mr. Suthep led months of protests against Ms. Yingluck's premiership, and opposed plans announced on May 1 for July elections as a possible exit from the crisis. The reason is simple: Yingluck was tipped to win at the polls. Instead Suthep, a veteran opposition politician, called for an appointed government whose members he and his allies would select to run the country for an unspecified period of time.

The gap between these two factions remains as wide as ever, and whether the military will be able to cajole a political compromise now, something it failed to accomplish after its 2006 coup, is uncertain at best.

The Thai coup is forcing the US to confront an uncomfortable reality with parallels to Egypt, where the military staged a coup last July. As with Egypt, the US has close military ties with Thailand. Many Thai officers attending US military training courses, and the two militaries share intelligence on counterterrorism and stage annual multinational war games called "Cobra Gold." This year's Cobra Gold in February involved almost 4,000 US troops and around 9,000 soldiers from Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Malaysia.

The US Leahy Amendment bans the US military from doing business with foreign militaries that engage in coups. The Obama administration has finessed this in the case of Egypt and is likely to do so in the case of Thailand, as foreshadowed by its reaction to the declaration of martial law in Thailand.

State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki said in a statement after that declaration (emphasis mine):

We are aware of reports that Thailand’s army has declared martial law and are monitoring developments closely. We remain very concerned about the deepening political crisis in Thailand and urge all parties to respect democratic principles, including respect for freedom of speech. We understand the Royal Thai Army announced that this martial law declaration is not a coup. We expect the Army to honor its commitment to make this a temporary action to prevent violence, and to not undermine democratic institutions. The United States firmly believes all parties must work together to resolve differences through dialogue and find a way forward. This development underscores the need for elections to determine the will of the Thai people.

Thai democratic institutions, such as they are, were undermined by the 2006 coup, the court-ordered removal of Yingluck, and the declaration of martial law on Sunday. They have been further undermined by the military's actions today. Secretary Kerry acknowledged that in his statement, saying: "We are reviewing our military and other assistance and engagements, consistent with U.S. law."

US training of foreign military officers is often claimed to be a means to make their military more receptive to democracy and subordination to elected civilians, though is hasn't always worked in practice. The US says its International Military Education and Training Program (IMET) "facilitates the development of important professional and personal relationships, which have proven to provide U.S. access and influence in a critical sector of society that often plays a pivotal role in supporting, or transitioning to, democratic governments."

If US officials are to be believed, they were blindsided by the Thai military's swift action. Amy Searight, the US Department of Defense's director for East Asia, told a conference in Washington at the end of last week that the US was "reasonably confident" that the military would not carry out a coup.

That confidence was clearly misplaced.

Coups are nothing unusual in Thailand. The country has witnessed 21 coups, attempted and successful, since 1912, and nine since 1971 (that's a coup every 4.8 years).

However, they have not been as damaging to the prosperity of the nation as one would expect. The nine coups since 1971 may have acted as a drag on economic progress, but the country's gains have still been remarkable. Thai GDP growth has averaged 7.7 percent a year between 1970 and 2012, and key indicators of well-being have also soared. Life expectancy at birth was 62 in 1970. It is now at about 77 years.

To be sure, there are signs that the political impasse of the past seven years is finally taking a toll. GDP contracted 0.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same quarter in 2013, and there's little reason for economic optimism in the short term.

Beyond that, it's now up to Thailand's generals, and perhaps the still widely-respected monarchy, to forge some kind of workable compromise.

Admittedly, Frigid normally posts these sorts of stories, but this one made me interested for several reasons - not only the "the US does not help out countries' militaries that perform coups" thing that was sidestepped for Egypt, but that the same thing might be done here, despite the rhetoric issued.

On the other hand... damn, Thailand. Nine coups since 1971? Careful guys, you don't want this to become your national pastime.

[Lys]

Keep in mind that in Thailand a military coup mostly means the present government is overthrown and a military government takes charge only until new elections are called. The military is not apolitical like it is in most western nations, and you could say that it sees itself as having a role in ensuring the public order is maintained and the organs of government continue functioning as intended. One could argue that the US military itself would be obligated to overthrow a government that had turned tyrannical and call new elections, it's just never had any need to do so. While Thailand has frequent coups, what they don't have is military dictatorships or juntas. The problem here isn't the military stepping in, that's just a symptom, the problem is that the yellow shirts don't seem to want to play by the rules.

They threw an utter bitchfit when Yingluck Shinawatra tried to push a bill to bring her brother back from exile, even though when the bill failed, she dropped the issue. They basically protesting that the Prime Minister dared to so much as propose that her brother be allowed to return to Thailand, mostly because they saw it as proof that Thaksin Shinawatra was still pulling the strings from exile, and they hate the guy's guts. Things then started getting out of control with protests and demonstrations in Bangkok. Keeping in mind here that the yellow shirts are mostly popular with the urban middle-class populace, while Shinawatra's party is mostly popular with the rural population. In Thailand you need the rural population to win, the urban populace isn't big enough to carry elections by itself. On the other hand, the urban populace happens to live where most of the government and reporters are located. So get a situation where a party that doesn't actually have broad popular support can create the impression of having it by staging massive demonstrations in the capital.

Yingluck decided that the best response to this was to call elections, to demonstrate that the people are with her. The yellow shirts couldn't win that election, so instead they settled for disrupting it. The returns suggested strong support for the ruling party, but there was enough disruption that the election council declared it invalid. Then more shit happened, there was unrest, and finally Yingluck was forced to resign. The two sides then started hammering out an agreement which fell through - according to the yellow shirts because the Thaksin told his guy to reject it - reducing the government to a deadlock. That was when the Royal Thai Army stepped in, mostly because the other option was to let the government collapse in on itself. The problem here is that Shinawatra's party tried playing by the rules of the game, only to have the yellow shirts keep changing the rules and getting away with it. It's a bad situation when both major political parties in a democratic government decide that they can't win by holding free and fair elections, because then they're not going to be well inclined to having them. Seein through that lens, the army intervening to sort that shit out could be a good thing.

[rhoenix]

With that in mind, I can see this being a possible good thing, yes.

On the other hand, the fact that Thailand's military has done this nine times since 1971, despite their intentions you outlined, suggests to me that the approach by the people actually put into power isn't and hasn't been working.

As you elaborated, there appears to be a large divide between the urban voters, and the rural voters - the rural voters are far more numerous, but the urban voters live in the cities, near the government offices and all of that. In my mind, the very fact that it separated into that divide speaks to how those in cities view themselves, compared to their more rural counterparts.

[frigidmagi]

Thailand's coup leaders detain former PM Yingluck

Thailand's ex-PM Yingluck Shinawatra and a number of family members and politicians have been detained, as leaders of Thursday's military coup tightened their grip on power.

Ms Yingluck and scores of politicians from the deposed government had earlier been ordered to report to the military.

She was kept for several hours and then driven to an undisclosed location.

Army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha also met key officials, telling them reform must come before any elections.

Gen Prayuth summoned governors, business leaders and civil servants to the Bangkok Army Club on Friday.

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Analysis from the BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok
After seven months the tents, stages and all the paraphernalia of protest are coming down in Bangkok's old quarter. With their goal of a military coup achieved, the weary anti-government movement can declare victory and go home. Armed soldiers now patrol their rally sites, next to the monument that commemorates the birth of Thai democracy 82 years ago.

That democracy is now in ruins. When the army mounted a coup eight years ago it did so almost apologetically and promised a speedy return to democratic rule. This coup wears a grimmer face, and there have been no such promises. Instead, land border crossings are being scrutinised to prevent potential resistance leaders escaping. Those the military fears most have been ordered to give themselves up or face arrest. Dozens are being held incommunicado.

No one knows yet what General Prayuth's real intentions are. He has good reason to worry about resistance. The pro-government Red-Shirt movement is far better organised than eight years ago, and could still be financed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's deep pockets.

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Six of Thailand's most senior military officers have now been appointed to run the country, with provincial commanders supervising local government.

The BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok says that, unlike in previous coups, there have been no promises of a quick return to civilian rule.

Gen Prayuth told the meeting: "I want all civil servants to help organise the country. We must have economic, social and political reforms before elections. If the situation is peaceful, we are ready to return power to the people."

The general said the coup was necessary to "quickly bring the situation back to normal".

One local official leaving the meeting, Arkom Theerasak, told Associated Press: "There will be an election but it will take a while. The general didn't say when."

Ms Yingluck, who had been prime minister until being removed by the judiciary this month, had been ordered to report to the military along with more than 100 other politicians, including acting PM Niwatthamrong Boonsongphaisan.

It was unclear whether Gen Prayuth met either of them.

Some 155 politicians have been barred from leaving the country.

Our correspondent says it is unclear how many people have been detained but they have been separated and held incommunicado at different bases.

Reuters quoted a military officer as saying Ms Yingluck, her sister and brother-in-law had been held.

Thai military spokesman Col Werachon Sukhondhadhpatipak told the BBC those detained were all involved in Thailand's political "conflict" and he stressed the army was neutral and impartial in those that it had held.


Col Werachon told the BBC why the army had detained political leaders
Col Werachon said the detentions should be not be longer than a week and were intended to keep the detainees away from "tension".

Our correspondent says there were some small and angry protests in Bangkok against the coup earlier on Friday but, although a few people were detained, there has been no serious resistance.

On Thursday the military suspended the constitution and banned political gatherings, saying order was needed after months of turmoil.

The US led widespread international criticism of the coup, saying there was "no justification".

I don't hold out much hope because a military coup can't fix the underlying problems that lead to this. There is bluntly a massive divide between the interests of the rural poor and the urban middle class/elites and that is what's driving the conflict.

[General Havoc]

Thailand, take sixteen. Action.