Portugal's strange election

[frigidmagi]

telegraph

On October 4, the ruling conservative coalition that has governed Portugal for four years lost its parliamentary majority.

The centre-right alliance, led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, had overseen the implementation of one of the toughest austerity packages in the euro following a €78bn bail-out in 2011. The incumbents still emerged as the biggest party with 36.8pc of the vote share, but lost 17 seats and their parliamentary majority in the process.

• Europe braces itself for a revolutionary Leftist backlash after Greece
In second place was the main opposition Socialists (PS) led by Antonio Costa. Mr Costa - a moderate who supports Portugal's euro membership - gained 32.4pc of the vote share. The result was disappointing but not catastrophic for the former mayor of Lisbon, who had been narrowly leading the polls in the electoral run up.
But Portugal's more stridently anti-austerity, eurosceptic parties on the Left - the radical Left Bloc (sometimes dubbed the "Syriza of Portugal") and the anti-euro Communists, saw a surprising surge in support. Combined, they gained 18.5pc of the vote.

Despite the inconclusive result, the election indicated an overall dissatisfaction with Portugal's dominant pro-austerity, pro-bail-out forces (including the Socialists).

A stunted Leftist alliance
The electoral result pointed to the likely continuation of a minority centre-right government led by Mr Passos Coelho.
However, for any new government to carry out painful economic reforms demanded by the EU, the PM would require opposition support in parliament.

Mr Costa, however, vowed never to back the conservatives. Instead, after a few weeks of political horsetrading, he brokered a historic coalition deal with the radical Left Bloc and Communists in order to clump together a workable political majority of just under 51pc.

Hailed as a "Berlin Wall moment" for the country, the three main parties on the Left managed to put aside internecine squabbles to present themselves as the only government that could secure political stability for Portugal.

Despite getting into bed with hardened eurosceptic Communists, Mr Costa promised not to jettison his pro-European principles and to notionally abide by the stringent fiscal targets imposed by Portugal's former creditors in Brussels.

However, the Leftist alliance is of a decidedly anti-austerity bent. Its policies would likely jeopardise the fiscal consolidation of the centre-right, and poison Portugal's relationship with Brussels, say analysts.

"The minimum wage would probably be raised, further tweaks to the social security system would probably be off the table, as would a further liberalisation of the labour market, or a reduction in the tax-burden," notes Federico Santi at Eurasia Group.

This result could be "a potentially significant deterioration of the fiscal accounts, triggering a bitter political fight with the EU Commission over deficit targets", said Mr Santi.

Mr Costa's Left-wing alliance was not chosen to form a new government by Portugal's head of state - president Aníbal Cavaco Silva.

In line with the country's long-standing constitutional arrangements, the president invited prime minister Passos Coelho - the leader of the largest party - to form a minority government. The appointment still needs parliamentary ratification.
But it was the president's subsequent explanation that has provoked cries of constitutional over-reach. Here's what he told the nation:

In 40 years of democracy, no government in Portugal has ever depended on the support of anti-European forces, that is to say forces that campaigned to abrogate the Lisbon Treaty, the Fiscal Compact, the Growth and Stability Pact, as well as to dismantle monetary union and take Portugal out of the euro, in addition to wanting the dissolution of NATO. This is the worst moment for a radical change to the foundations of our democracy. After we carried out an onerous programme of financial assistance, entailing heavy sacrifices, it is my duty, within my constitutional powers, to do everything possible to prevent false signals being sent to financial institutions, investors and markets."

In presenting his decision as one taken for the good of the country - that is protecting the office of government from anti-European forces - President Cavaco Silva has effectively barred the left-wing alliance and Mr Costa from power.

Unsurprisingly, his stance has emboldened the country's radical Left forces. They have now vowed to topple the nascent government with a de facto vote of confidence over the next week.

The president's decision has put Portugal in a unprecedented constitutional bind.

The centre-right is in no position to form a new government and Mr Passos Coelho will likely have to resign in the coming days. The left alliance, meanwhile, remains the only available alternative coalition, but Mr Cavaco Silva's position means he cannot appoint socialist Mr Costa as prime minister for fear of unleashing anti-EU forces on the country.

Newly re-appointed Portuguese prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho

Events are complicated further by the fact that the president's term in office will expire in January. Portuguese electoral rules also state that new elections cannot be held within six months of a previous vote.

In the face of a political vacuum, a caretaker regime is set to take the reins until a new general election can be held in March. But even this decision would amount to an "unprecedented" stretching of the president's constitutional mandate, notes Mr Santi of Eurasia Group.

The president could now "withhold from naming a new prime minister, thus leaving the Passos Coelho government in place to take care of day-to-day administrative duties but without having the power to pass any legislation", he adds.
A new wave of populism in the south?

Before this month's election, Portugal was considered exceptional in the southern Mediterranean for the conspicuous absence of a populist anti-austerity movement in the mould of Podemos in Spain, or the popularity of Syriza in Greece.
It is crisis with profound consequences for democracy in the rest of the eurozone.

Its acquiescent government was considered "more Troika than the Troika" for its zealous implementation of draconian spending cuts and tax hikes in a bid to please its paymasters. The current political crisis is another example of the establishment taking pre-emptive measures to supposedly safeguard the country from destabilising political and market forces that threaten its future.

Unlike the imposition of technocratic governments in Italy and Greece, Brussels does not have its fingerprints on the weapon in Portugal. The current maelstrom is one manufactured entirely by its own political elites, but one that has profound consequences for democracy in the rest of the eurozone. It has already raised disquiet in neighbouring Spain which faces its own electoral day of reckoning in December. "I don't like what happened in Portugal" said a nervous Mariano Rajoy of Spain on Monday.

Ironically, many observers note that Mr Costa's left-wing alliance is nowhere close the bogeyman that has been painted by President Cavaco Silva. But his intransigence may well now unleash exactly the kind of anti-EU forces that are set to keep him awake at night.

[Lys]

That speech by the President Cavaco Silva makes him sound like he's beholden to international financial institutions rather than the voters who fucking elected him. He talks about democracy, but that's not how democracy is actually supposed to work.

[Norseman]

That speech by the President Cavaco Silva makes him sound like he's beholden to international financial institutions rather than the voters who fucking elected him.

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He talks about democracy, but that's not how democracy is actually supposed to work.

Well to play devils advocate in a democracy elected leaders are supposed to use their judgement, not just give in to what the people ask for. Then afterwards the people can vote in a new man if they want. And since he is still the president, and the president picks the prime minister...

As for why I bring up judgement... Greece. Everyone saw what happened to Greece when they tried to break austerity. I see no reason why Germany wouldn't want to continue playing hardball.

[Lys]

Well to play devils advocate in a democracy elected leaders are supposed to use their judgement, not just give in to what the people ask for. Then afterwards the people can vote in a new man if they want. And since he is still the president, and the president picks the prime minister...

Yes but i feel he is acting in bad faith, as the leader of the leftist coalition is pro-EU as is his party, which accounts for more than three fifths of the coalition. Putting forth the notion that this will result in some kind of disastrous effort to yank Portugal out of the EU seems rather disingenuous, it clearly isn't the case.