Bad guys in Mogadishu, National Review

[frigidmagi]

National Review Online

[quote]Editor’s Note: Seemingly lost in the headlines this week has been the news that Islamic forces have reportedly taken over Mogadishu. National Review Online gathered a group of experts to explain what’s happening and what can be done about it.

Peter Brookes
No matter which way you look at it, it’s just about impossible to find any good news in what happened in Somalia this week, after Islamic forces took the capital, Mogadishu. Maybe I should say the historical capital since Somalia hasn’t had a functioning central government in 15 years, but I digress...

In either case, it’s hard to be optimistic, at least in the short-term. Sure, maybe the triumphant Islamic Courts Union doesn’t have ties to al Qaeda. O.K., that’s good, but what does that mean? We get the Somali-version of the Taliban instead? Great, just great.

The way it looks now, it’s al Qaeda (e.g., Al Ittihad al Islami), the Taliban (e.g., Islamic Courts Union) and a bunch of ruthless warlords—all in one poor, lawless state that might, just might, become the next Afghanistan.

Heck, if I were Osama, I’d pull up tent stakes right now and head for safe haven in the Horn of Africa. It’s better than living on the Pakistani frontier, or taking on American GIs in Iraq or Afghanistan.

And that’s exactly the point: Somalia might just become the location of the next Taliban-al Qaeda partnership. Something—that even while we figure out what to do next—we know is unacceptable.

— Peter Brookes is senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He is author of A Devil’s Triangle: Terrorism, WMD and Rogue States.


Thomas Joscelyn
Although few realized it at the time, the U.S. retreat from Somalia in 1994 was a seminal event in the evolution of al Qaeda. It proved to them that the “paper tiger,â€

[LadyTevar]

I see a lot of talking heads speaking empty words, honestly. Right now, there is nothing that the US *can* do... we don't have the manpower, we don't have the willpower, and we don't have the leadership or the backing of the people

Even I read this and get the thought "why should I care, that's in Somalia where it's gone to hell anyway."

[frigidmagi]

Even I read this and get the thought "why should I care, that's in Somalia where it's gone to hell anyway."
_

In the 90s people thought the same of a small nation named Afghanistan. I'm not advocating the invasion of Somolia, but I think we need to pay attention to the fact that the enemy is opening up a new front. He's not going to get Aghanistan back, he's losing in Iraq (Yes people Al Qeada is losing in Iraq) and he needs a new place to gather men and weapons.

Somolia is a logical place being a failed state with a muslim majority and as shown by your comment not generating alot of interest in the west.

[LadyTevar]

We went into Somalia. We tried to help. They didn't want our help, we lost people, and so we pulled out.

It's been nothing but warfare there ever since, because people can't get their shit together down there. Why step into the quicksand?

[frigidmagi]

Because the last time we let Al Qeada have their own state and safe haven they used it to kill 3000 Americans. We cannot allow them any safe places. Again I AM NOT ADVOCATING INVADING SOMOLIA.

[LadyTevar]

Well... from the way those talking heads are leaning... that's the only way to stop it.

Seriously... before we do ANY MORE ATTACKING, we need to build our fuckin' army back up so we're not sending the reserves out every other month. I know people who've not been home more than 2 months the last YEAR.

[Mayabird]

I say we support the independence of Somaliland and Puntland, areas of Somalia that basically said "Fuck this" and formed their own functioning countries. These Muslim courts run Mogadishu and the surrounding areas but they don't have any power in Somaliland.

[frigidmagi]

No, there are several ways to stop it short of an invasion. Maya just pointed one out, support native resistence to the Courts. What we have to do is get them organized and armed, while they might not be able to completely take out the Courts, they should be able to prevent the Courts from doing much besides fighting them.

[LadyTevar]

Oh yes, let's arm the natives, and let them duke it out. It worked so well during the British & Indian war, as well as the Westward Expansion & Indian Wars, not to mention Afganistan, the Contras in South America and god only knows who else we've given guns to.

[frigidmagi]

You got a better idea besides ignoring them and hoping nothing happens? If so put words to it.

[Mayabird]

Oh yes, let's arm the natives, and let them duke it out. It worked so well during the British & Indian war, as well as the Westward Expansion & Indian Wars, not to mention Afganistan, the Contras in South America and god only knows who else we've given guns to.

We don't have to "arm the natives." Somaliland has been its own independent nation in all but recognition for years. All we have to do is establish diplomatic ties with them and say "This here is a country, and the rest of you deal with it" and there we go. They're even building their own national university, for goodness sakes. It won't cost that much to build an embassy there.