Canada agenda may spark election

[frigidmagi]

BBC

A snap election could be called in Canada this month if opposition parties reject the minority Conservative government's annual policy address.

Tuesday night's speech offered MPs a vote on military involvement in Afghanistan and outlined tax cuts.

Opposition Liberals will give their verdict on the speech on Wednesday, ahead of a series of confidence votes.

However, a Liberal official said there appeared to be nothing in the speech to prevent his party from supporting it.

The speech will be voted on three times, with the first vote expected on Thursday night, a second on Monday and the final one on 24 October.

As they hold only 126 seats in the 308-seat parliament, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives need the support of at least one of the three main opposition parties to see the vote through.

The opposition NDP and Bloc Quebecois have already said they will vote against the government.

'Poisoned pill'

The "throne speech" was given by Governor-General Michaelle Jean - who represents Queen Elizabeth II, the head of state - a tradition under the Commonwealth country's parliamentary system.

The government promised a parliamentary vote on any extension of the military mission in Afghanistan, currently set to end in February 2009.

It also announced that Canada would not be able to meet its targets under the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, as its greenhouse gas emissions are 33% above its commitment.


SEATS IN PARLIAMENT
Canadian PM Stephen Harper
Conservatives: 126
Liberals: 96
Bloc Quebecois: 49
New Democrats: 30
Independent: 3
Total: 308 (including 4 vacant seats)

Poll speculation: Your views

The government also outlined multi-year tax cuts for individuals and businesses, and a 1% cut in the national sales tax.

Commenting on the speech, Liberal leader Stephane Dion said it contained "serious deficiencies".

However, he added: "The priority of Canadians is that this parliament works and there is not a third election in three-and-a-half years."

Deputy leader Michael Ignatieff said the speech contained no "poisoned pill" policies that they would have to vote against but added: "We need to spend the evening calmly, soberly, reflecting."

Mr Dion does not enjoy uniform party support, and recent opinion polls have given the Conservatives a substantial lead over the Liberals.

Mr Harper has said publicly that he would rather continue governing without seeking a new mandate until 2009, but some commentators have suggested he could be bluffing.

There are high stakes on both sides. Observers say Mr Dion risks losing credibility if he supports the government, while Mr Harper takes a gamble if he turns to the always unpredictable ballot box.

Well I would like to know what our Canadian posters think?

[Cynical Cat]

The situation is like this:

The Conservatives have been restrained while in power, but they've been in a very unstable position. Furthermore, they have kept an iron clad control on their members (really unprecidented in Canadian politics) to prevent any of them from saying an unpleasant truth.

So they haven't done anything really awful, but they haven't been in position to get away with it. No one knows what will happen if they become a majority government, but there's a strong suspicion among many that the mask will come off.

The Liberals are the party that has a realistic chance of beating them, but their current leader has very good paper qualifications, but comes off as a dithering dork in the media. Some Liberals are pressuring him to bring down the government on this, possibly so he can hurry up and lose the election and then they can dump him for someone else (sounds delightfully vicious doesn't it?).

And I've just heard on the CBC while writing this that the Liberals aren't going to vote against the throne speach.