New Hampshire poll summary.

[SirNitram]

Being in the statistics business, I tend to read and be able to understand what polls are babbling about. As they slew out of New Hampshire following the Caucuses in Iowa, here's the rundown. First, the Dems.

Hillary: Ouch. Plan A for her campaign.. Run her as inevitable and incumbunt.. Works until you lose your big lead. Anyone else running such a campaign could probably have recovered from losing to Obama by eight points in Iowa. But losing to Edwards when he spent a fraction of the money there, coupled with the media's intense hate of Hillary(Reading the stories reminds me of Middle Schoolers presented with the overacheiver; it's pathetic), and she's losing any lead she once had.

Obama: His mature handling of Billy-Boy's grabbing and shoving of one of his staff(To the point the Secret Service was involved), coupled with a powerful message of change is pushing him up. Plus, the demographics which strongly favored him, especially younger voters, are bigger portions in NH. Most importantly, he's grabbing up Independents.. Sucking them right away from McCain on the far side of the aisle.

Edwards: Below Hillary in the polls(But he was before Iowa as well), and with a tightly constrained budget because he's paying the publically funded handicap. And the FEC are dicks who count groups that collect small donations and hand them to the candidate as large donators. Still, he apparently had a great night at the debates, and he's still hanging in there.

Republians!

Romney: Fighting for life. New Hampshire is close enough to Massachusetts that they remember the difference between what he said and what he did. Hurting him with conservatives for obvious reasons. First joke of the campaign: 'I hear Huckabee's chief of staff wants to punch my teeth out. All I have to say is don't touch the hair.' I believe it's now Year Three since the last recorded instance of Romney's hair moving in the wind.

McCain: Finished a painful fourth in Iowa, but clinging to life in New Hampshire. Heavy anti-war sentiment there will likely hurt him, what with his recent statement that he's fine with remaining in Iraq a million years. Tip: If you're still occupying a country one million years later, you are announcing you have fucked up on a level not previously thought possible.

Huckabee: 12% and climbing in NH. The Gop establishment is busting their ass to discredit him, but his economic populism coupled with blatant theocratic urges could win him votes.

Primary on Tuesday.