May 6th primary results

[Rogue 9]

I'm not upset; this is par for the course.

Anyway, all I have to say is that we'd need some form of divination to actually throw out Republicans' ballots now that the election's over, because at the end of the day, the ballots themselves are completely anonymous, as they're meant to be. If there's a way to actually do that (and no, switching to a closed primary in the future does nothing for throwing out existing votes now), then slap me silly and call me a Trektard, but I'm not seeing it.

[LadyTevar]

I responded with the following:

And how do you propose we do that? Unless they care to tell us (which some did, but I'm sure not all) then we can't know their party affiliation; we just know which ballot they asked to vote on.

And this is absolutely, positively true and relevant: As much as the good lady may wish otherwise, we did not record which people cast which ballots, (I mean, fucking duh, it's called a secret ballot for a reason) so even if we went back through the voter books, checked against party registrations, and compared to see which Republicans voted on the Democratic ballot, we literally could not discount their votes, because we do not know which ones were theirs. It is literally impossible to do as she suggests.

Actually, in my state? They have a method to do that.

When I go to vote, I am given a ballot and a numbered ticket. The ticket number is written beside my name in the Book of Registered Voters. When I am finished voting, a strip on the top of the (paper) ballot is removed and stabled to my numbered ticket and stored separately from the ballot box.

Thus, if for any reason that particular ballot is challenged, they can pull the numbered ticket and match it to my name in order to make sure I am legal to vote.

How's it done in YOUR state, Rogue?

[LadyTevar]

PS: CNN has a video of Clinton 'live' at Shepherd University in Shepherdstown WV. I think she started at Noon.

[Rogue 9]

As much as the good lady may wish otherwise, we did not record which people cast which ballots, (I mean, fucking duh, it's called a secret ballot for a reason) so even if we went back through the voter books, checked against party registrations, and compared to see which Republicans voted on the Democratic ballot, we literally could not discount their votes, because we do not know which ones were theirs. It is literally impossible to do as she suggests.

Actually, in my state? They have a method to do that.

When I go to vote, I am given a ballot and a numbered ticket. The ticket number is written beside my name in the Book of Registered Voters. When I am finished voting, a strip on the top of the (paper) ballot is removed and stabled to my numbered ticket and stored separately from the ballot box.

Thus, if for any reason that particular ballot is challenged, they can pull the numbered ticket and match it to my name in order to make sure I am legal to vote.

How's it done in YOUR state, Rogue?

The ballot is secret in Indiana. After it is cast, there is no way to alter it or pin it down to a specific voter; the most specific you can get is which precinct it came from, which leaves it as one of a couple hundred people, minimum.

[SirNitram]

For those wondering about WV, here's a shocker:

I'm calling it for Hillary.

Yes, a week before, I'm comfortable calling that much. How much is the crucial question, and here's the two extremes I believe possible.

Best for Obama: A mere 10% loss. Clinton walks away with 2-4 pledged, standing there and trying to explain how having just lost another chance to 'close the deal' means she's ahead.

Best for Clinton: Staggering, mind-numbing 5 to 1 blowout, Clinton. She gets 12 delegates, still left there trying to massage the math into something favorable as Obama takes home a few more towards 2025.

[General Havoc]

For those wondering about WV, here's a shocker:

I'm calling it for Hillary.

Yes, a week before, I'm comfortable calling that much. How much is the crucial question, and here's the two extremes I believe possible.

Best for Obama: A mere 10% loss. Clinton walks away with 2-4 pledged, standing there and trying to explain how having just lost another chance to 'close the deal' means she's ahead.

Best for Clinton: Staggering, mind-numbing 5 to 1 blowout, Clinton. She gets 12 delegates, still left there trying to massage the math into something favorable as Obama takes home a few more towards 2025.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I don't see Obama losing 5:1 any time soon. She'll grab a few delegates here. Nothing by comparison to the flood of superdelegates he's expected to pick up after last night's election.

[Derek Thunder]

No, I think West Virginia is going to be rough for Obama.

Recent polling: http://www.pollster.com/08-WV-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Not a lot of data points, but the last poll is pretty bad. Even if he picked up all the undecideds, and he probably won't (Clinton tends to do better with last-minute voters), he'd still lose.

Rasmussen 5/4/08 840 LV 56 27 17

I blew my IN predictions by a fairly wide margin but I think it's safe to say Obama is not going to get close here.

Edit: On the plus side, there's a lot of speculation now that Oregon, which polls strong for Obama and votes on May 20th, will be the end of the race more or less.