Someone made an interesting point to me lately. Could Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Syria get away with openly and brazenly kidnapping US or UK troops in this manner?Iran emerged with a measure of strength from its standoff with Britain over the captured sailors — deflecting attention from its disputed nuclear program and proving it can cause trouble in the Middle East when it chooses.
Yet the country's hardline leaders also shied away from all-out confrontation with the West — backing down once they had flexed their power, apparently worried they might go too far.
In that way, the standoff proved one thing above all else: Iran's internal decision-making process remains largely mysterious to the West.
Split between ultra-hardline and more moderate factions, the Iranian regime moved back and forth on the seizures, sending mixed messages until suddenly, startlingly, announcing Wednesday that it would free the 15 sailors.
"The thing ... about Iran's negotiating strategy is that they say, 'No, no, no' until it suddenly becomes 'Yes,'" said Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Whether that is a sign of internal dissent in Iran or finely honed, clever brinkmanship, Iran clearly gained some respect from the dispute — at least enough to make the West cautious that the Islamic regime would be willing to dive into such a tussle again.
"It allowed the Iranians to demonstrate that they can't be trifled with. They have a capacity to take action, and that will undoubtedly make people more careful," said James Dobbins, a former Bush administration envoy to Afghanistan who now heads military analysis for the RAND Corp. think tank in the United States.
That could affect the aggressiveness of future British navy patrols in the Persian Gulf near Iraq. It also could affect any future actions by U.S. military forces inside Iraq.
The United States says its policy is to arrest Iranians in Iraq who are funneling arms or money to Shiite militias there. But the Americans may be more cautious if it thinks hardliners in Iran are willing to retaliate by seizing U.S. troops. Iranian and U.S. forces already had one dustup at the Iraqi border last September, apparently based on confusion over border lines, that was defused.
If Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, who are believed to be responsible for the capture of the British sailors, are able to operate inside parts of Iraq, they could clearly target U.S. forces.
Iran said all along that its seizure of the British had nothing to do with Iranian prisoners held by the U.S. in Iraq, blaming it instead on the sailors' illegal entrance into its waters.
But there is no disputing that one Iranian diplomat, held by unknown captors in Iraq, was released this week, either by coincidence or a deal.
And if the seizures of the 15 British sailors were actually planned, as some experts believe, Iran may have targeted Britons rather than Americans as a way to show its capabilities without directly tangling with the United States.
None of that means Britain came out the loser: In fact, Iran did not get the main thing it sought — a public apology. Britain insists it never offered a quid pro quo, either, instead relying on quiet diplomacy.
"In contrast to the Americans, the Brits have tried to play down the confrontation and adopted a more conciliatory line, and that probably helped," said Dobbins.
Iran may have chosen to end the dispute because it feared it would lose ground if it pushed the confrontation too far. It also may have been trying to moderate hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's reputation, allowing him to announce the releases in order to appear benevolent.
Alternatively, Iran might have been trying to show that it can compromise as a way to get some traction in the dispute over its controversial nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed toward the development of nuclear weapons. Iran can't help but be pleased that for several weeks, international focus was off the issue.
But if Western pressure on the nuclear program gathers again, Iran will most likely respond with the same mix of fierce rhetoric and pragmatic dealing it showed during the British standoff.
Ahmadinejad hinted at that even as he announced the British sailors would go free. Speaking of U.N. Security Council sanctions that have targeted Iran's banks over the nuclear issue, he said: "If they want to create disturbances ... for parts of our economy, (our) banks, we will retaliate.
Iran did, which illusrates to other nations their power on a regional scale. Perhaps that's why the British sailors and marines were returned, they got what they needed from the whole mess.
