As US withdrawal nears, Iraqi fear of Iran grows

[frigidmagi]

CSMontior

[quote]Iraqis remain deeply concerned about Iranian influence in their country five months before the US begins the massive drawdown of its troops from Iraq.

Next year, elections will be held in March, and the 112,000 American forces will shrink by more than half by the end of August. As that transition nears, Iraq has made significant progress toward greater security.

In the former center of the Sunni insurgency, for example, the governor of Anbar Province is most concerned about how to export cucumbers and obtain foreign investment, not security. Yet worries linger about how Iran might try to fill the void left by American forces.

Anbar Gov. Qasim al Fahadawi told Adm. Mike Mullen, America’s top military officer, that he wishes the Americans would delay their departure.

“When we go to sleep, we keep one eye open, just to be sure,â€

[Charon]

One reason I've been very iffy about a withdrawal of troops has been because the U.S.A. has a history of going into an area, fucking shit up, and then leaving without giving much of a damn as to what happens once they are gone.

At least the violence is down though, but you know more about this sort of situation Frigid, will it last?

Finally, Iran is a wild card I think. On the one hand they may be too busy dealing with their own problems right now. On the other they may try to distract the people of their country by attacking Iraq.

[frigidmagi]

One reason I've been very iffy about a withdrawal of troops has been because the U.S.A. has a history of going into an area, fucking shit up, and then leaving without giving much of a damn as to what happens once they are gone.

We do? That's gotta be a surprise to the Bosnians, Germans, Japanese, Koreans and of course large chunks of Latin America who couldn't get rid of us.

At least the violence is down though, but you know more about this sort of situation Frigid, will it last?

Well it helps that there's no large native groups committed to violence. Al Shar has been pretty much beaten down and the Sunni tribes are turned. The Kurds right now aren't gonna start any fights. We do however have Al Qeada groups and off shots doing terrorist attacks. That'll cause chaos and death but it won't make the Iraqi government collapse. We might see a situation like Israel which carries some strains of irony I suppose.

Finally, Iran is a wild card I think. On the one hand they may be too busy dealing with their own problems right now. On the other they may try to distract the people of their country by attacking Iraq.

It is possible but frankly unlikely. Because if Iran commits to a war with Iraq, after all the Kafirs have up and left they're gonna find it difficult to justify to the populace. A populace which already has doubts. At that point they'll be attacking not just another Muslim country, but another Shia Muslim country. In 2005 or 2006 they could have sold it has a liberation (more irony) but not today.

Also the leadership of Iran is not made up of utter morons. They have to know that just because we left doesn't mean we won't come back and I do think we could find the will and the means to come running in if the Iranians attack Iraq. There may be some level border dickery but that's about it I think.

There's also the large and growing American presence in Afghanistan to worry about. So there are still quite a bit of trigger pullers hanging around looking for something to do.

[Charon]

One reason I've been very iffy about a withdrawal of troops has been because the U.S.A. has a history of going into an area, fucking shit up, and then leaving without giving much of a damn as to what happens once they are gone.

We do? That's gotta be a surprise to the Bosnians, Germans, Japanese, Koreans and of course large chunks of Latin America who couldn't get rid of us.

I was referring more to the Cold War era "Go in, make sure they aren't dirty Commies, and then leave" style of involvement that was going on. Unless I am wrong and that isn't what went down.

At least the violence is down though, but you know more about this sort of situation Frigid, will it last?

Well it helps that there's no large native groups committed to violence. Al Shar has been pretty much beaten down and the Sunni tribes are turned. The Kurds right now aren't gonna start any fights. We do however have Al Qeada groups and off shots doing terrorist attacks. That'll cause chaos and death but it won't make the Iraqi government collapse. We might see a situation like Israel which carries some strains of irony I suppose.

It'll be next to impossible to dig Al Qaeda and other groups out of that area, so I guess I'll just be thankful that Iraq has what it does.

Finally, Iran is a wild card I think. On the one hand they may be too busy dealing with their own problems right now. On the other they may try to distract the people of their country by attacking Iraq.

It is possible but frankly unlikely. Because if Iran commits to a war with Iraq, after all the Kafirs have up and left they're gonna find it difficult to justify to the populace. A populace which already has doubts. At that point they'll be attacking not just another Muslim country, but another Shia Muslim country. In 2005 or 2006 they could have sold it has a liberation (more irony) but not today.

Also the leadership of Iran is not made up of utter morons. They have to know that just because we left doesn't mean we won't come back and I do think we could find the will and the means to come running in if the Iranians attack Iraq. There may be some level border dickery but that's about it I think.

There's also the large and growing American presence in Afghanistan to worry about. So there are still quite a bit of trigger pullers hanging around looking for something to do.

I agree, for the most part Iran is busy internally right now and they aren't looking for a fight. But whoever is running Iran right now doesn't seem to be entirely stable in my opinion. War? Unlikely. Attempt at political take-over? Also unlikely, but less unlikely I think.

[frigidmagi]

I was referring more to the Cold War era "Go in, make sure they aren't dirty Commies, and then leave" style of involvement that was going on. Unless I am wrong and that isn't what went down.

We do a number of coups, election rigging and so on. However it tends to be when the US shows up with a military force, we hang around for awhile. Alot of folks don't view that as a good thing. In my view alot of those folks would piss and moan if we slammed in and ran out as well. There are some viable complaints don't get me wrong, but some at least will bitch about any military action, no matter what.

It'll be next to impossible to dig Al Qaeda and other groups out of that area, so I guess I'll just be thankful that Iraq has what it does.

My personal hope is that as Iraq stabilizes and achieves a civil society, it'll be harder and harder for Al Qaeda to operate.

I agree, for the most part Iran is busy internally right now and they aren't looking for a fight. But whoever is running Iran right now doesn't seem to be entirely stable in my opinion. War? Unlikely. Attempt at political take-over? Also unlikely, but less unlikely I think.

With what assets? Al Shar was their best bet and their boy, but he's been slapped down. The religious leaders in Iraq won't cooperate, Ayatollah Al-Sistani for example is pretty opposed to being an Iranian puppet and has urged for Iraqi self rule. The political leaders of Iraq could be subverted, but it would be difficult to talk the Kurds or the Sunni into it and frankly the Kurds and Sunni working together while numbericly less then the Shia could fight them off. Basically Iran has no assets in place for a take over from within and to many elements of the Iraqi power structure would be hostile to such an event.

On the flip side, the Iranians know that Iraq in it's current form would be more interested in being their ally then their enemy. If I was in the Iranian government (wouldn't that be a trip) I would urge against fucking around with Iran and more towards playing the game in Pakistan. As a Taliban victory would be an utter disaster for Iran and an Iran friendly government in Pakistan would be helpful on many levels.