Iran can now enrich.. 5%.

[SirNitram]

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[quote]VIENNA, May 14 — Inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have concluded that Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is now beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before, according to the agency’s top officials.

The findings may change the calculus of diplomacy in Europe and in Washington, which aimed to force a suspension of Iran’s enrichment activities in large part to prevent it from learning how to produce weapons-grade material.

In a short-notice inspection of Iran’s operations in the main nuclear facility at Natanz on Sunday, conducted in advance of a report to the United Nations Security Council due early next week, the inspectors found that Iranian engineers were already using roughly 1,300 centrifuges and were producing fuel suitable for nuclear reactors, according to diplomats and nuclear experts here.

Until recently, the Iranians were having difficulty keeping the delicate centrifuges spinning at the tremendous speeds necessary to make nuclear fuel and were often running them empty or not at all.

Now, those roadblocks appear to have been surmounted. “We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,â€

[frigidmagi]

If Iran stores the uranium and later runs it through its centrifuges for another four or five months, it can raise the enrichment level to 90 percent — the level needed for a nuclear weapon.

Seems to me that is most certainly something to take note of. I'm not saying panic by any means. But let's be honest and say they're making progress and making it faster then I would like.

Another question, let's say they make a bomb with their available tech, does anyone know how big it would be? Could a normal pickup truck transport it?

[SirNitram]

Even the Blue Danube, which some people started squawking over the availiability of plans for, was in the region of 7-8 thousand pounds. I don't know of any pickup that can do that.

In the meantime, this Reuter's version splashes cold water of reality on the situation.

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran's progress in enriching uranium has rendered unrealistic world powers' quest to prevent Tehran from gaining nuclear expertise, the U.N. atomic watchdog agency director said.

Mohamed ElBaradei did not take issue with a U.N. Security Council demand that Iran suspend enrichment in exchange for a suspension of sanctions against it and talks on a solution that would allay suspicion Tehran is trying to build atom bombs.

"Quite clearly, suspension is a requirement by the Security Council, and I would hope the Iranians would listen to the world community," ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in remarks released by the IAEA.

"But from a proliferation perspective, the fact of the matter is that one of the purposes of suspension -- keeping them from getting the knowledge -- has been overtaken by events," he said.

Iran has ramped up its programme from the research level since the start of 2007, installing more than 1,600 enrichment centrifuges, divided into 10 fuel-cycle "cascades", or networks, in an underground complex by the start of May, diplomats said.

Tehran has been hooking up one cascade every week or so, they said, and intends to have 3,000 operational by next month to lay a foundation for "industrial-scale" enrichment.

Speaking a week ahead of a International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran to the Security Council, ElBaradei said it would be more sensible to cap Iranian enrichment short of industrial scale rather than try to freeze it altogether.

"Until all outstanding verification issues are clarified, and the agency is able to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme, the focus should be to stop them from going to industrial scale production, to allow us to do a full court press inspection and to be sure they remain inside the (nuclear Non-Proliferation) treaty," ElBaradei said.

Citing national pride and a sovereign right to nuclear energy for economic development, Iran has ruled out a nuclear halt before, during or even as an outcome of negotiations. It insists the enrichment programme is only to yield electricity.

"A FACT"

"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich. From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact," ElBaradei said.

"The key message he is trying to get across to the world is that as long as this standoff, this confrontation goes on, and Iran is not suspending, they will continue to develop their industrial capability," said one diplomat close to the IAEA.

If the pending IAEA report certifies, as widely anticipated, that Iran has ignored a May 23 deadline set by the Security Council to suspend enrichment, it will face a third, broader and harsher round of U.N. sanctions.

Three-thousand centrifuges would be enough to refine uranium fuel for a bomb within a year should Iran want to do so.

The New York Times quoted IAEA officials on Monday as saying the agency had concluded Iran is starting to enrich uranium in much larger dimensions after solving technical glitches that dogged its research-scale programme.

But this did not mean Iran had attained industrial capacity, said Mark Fitzpatrick, non-proliferation analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"(It is not clear yet) whether the centrifuges are operating at normal speed, whether the cascades are linked together and whether they are working continuously. Until then, they cannot be said to have mastered the technology..., (although) at some point this year or next, Iran likely will reach that breakthrough," he told Reuters.

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Now, hang on a moment. 1,600 centrifuges by now is a rate of about 11 a week, not 164. Are we to buy they've suddenly increased production and installation speed by over an order of magnitude?

3,000 centrifuges for a bomb within a year.. If they operate them all continously and don't have to multi-cycle it.

They haven't yet acheived industrial capacity.. But Fitzpatrick is right, they could within one or two years, unmolested and assuming they hit no more roadblocks.

We'll round out this time of skepticism with some stuff from the professionals at Arms Control Association's 'Arms Control Today'. We'll skip the political bruhaha and get to the technicals:

Enrichment Program Advances

Iran has moved forward with its enrichment program in recent months, although some Iranian officials have apparently overstated its progress. Tehran has a pilot facility located at Natanz that contains approximately 358 centrifuges. Iran also is constructing a larger commercial facility at the same site and has a facility for converting uranium oxide into uranium hexafluoride.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced in an April 9 speech that “Iran is among the countries which produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale.â€